The Atlanta Braves (87-54) continue their 3-game set with the San Francisco Giants (68-73) Tuesday at Oracle Park in San Francisco. The Giants beat the Braves 3-2 in the series opener Monday but the Braves lead the season series 3-2.
Atlanta has won seven of the last 10 games and 1.5 games behind the New York Mets for first in the NL East. San Francisco is 5-5 over the last 10, nine games back of the final NL wild card berth and 29.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the division.
Braves starting RHP Kyle Wright (17-5, 3.23 ERA) gets the nod after a six-day rest while the Giants start RHP Jakob Junis (4-5, 3.98 ERA).
Betting Deets (PointsBet)
- Moneyline (ML): BRAVES -160, Giants +135
- Run Line (RL): Braves -1.5 (-105), Giants +1.5 (-110)
- Total (O/U) — 7.5 — O: -115, U: +100
Atlanta’s 3-Phase Edge
Wright has quietly been one of the best starters in baseball this year. FanGraphs power ranks Wright 24th overall and he’s the MLB wins leader currently. Also, Wright pitches his best on extended rest.
For instance, Wright is 5-1 with a 2.52 ERA, .609 opponents’ OPS and 4.67 K/BB rate when pitching on six or more days of rest. These are the best metrics for Wright in any rest split.
Furthermore, the Braves are 14-1 as favorites of -150 or more with a +35.6% return on investment (ROI) with a 5.60-3.13 final margin. Atlanta is 7-2 as road favorites with Wright starting with a +23.2% ROI and 6.00-3.56 final margin.
Additionally, Atlanta’s bullpen ranks higher than San Francisco’s in WAR, ERA, WHIP, FIP, home runs allowed per nine and swing-and-miss rates, per FanGraphs.
Finally, the Braves are more productive vs. right-handed pitching. Atlanta’s lineup has a better wRC+ (105-96), wOBA (.324-.305), ISO (.193-.149) and hard-hit rate (35.1-29.3%) according to FanGraphs.
Go to PointsBet Sportsbook and BET the ATLANTA BRAVES (-160). I’d bet Atlanta’s ML all the way up to -170.
- A $160 bet on the Braves (-160) returns a $100 profit if Atlanta wins outright.
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