Braves End NL East Race With A Bang In Miami Monday

The Atlanta Braves’ (101-58) magic number is just 1 after sweeping the New York Mets Friday-Sunday to take a 2-game lead atop the division.

The Miami Marlins (66-92), who’s been eliminated for weeks, host the Braves for the start of a 3-game series Monday.

ATL would be wise to put an end to the NL East race Monday. With a win, the Braves can rest their star players for the National League Division Series, which begins Tuesday, Oct. 11.

Given their 3-phase edge and profitability in similar situations, Atlanta’s plus-money run line (RL) payout looks juicy.

BET the ATLANTA BRAVES -1.5 (+110) on the run line (RL) at DraftKings Sportbook.

Betting Details (DraftKings)

  • Moneyline: Braves (-155), Marlins (+135)
  • RL: BRAVES -1.5 (+110), Marlins +1.5 (-130)
  • Total (O/U) — 7.5 — O: +100, U: -120

BET: Braves -1.5 (+110) RL

(Kevin Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images)

ATL RHP Bryce Elder (2-3, 2.76 ERA) is making the 8th start of his rookie season and pitching for an opportunity at playoff innings. Casual MLB fans aren’t familiar with Elder but he’s the 3rd-best prospect in ATL’s farm system, per Statcast.

The Braves organization is churning out elite arms seemingly every year and Elder is the next in line. This will be Elder’s 4th start vs. the Marlins. Elder has a 1.53 ERA in his 17 2/3 innings pitched against Miami.

Marlins starting LHP Jesus Luzardo (3-7, 3.53 ERA) however is getting lit up by the Braves since coming to Miami in 2021. Luzardo is 1-2 with a 6.23 ERA vs. the Braves over that span.

The Braves have dominated the Marlins in Miami this season. ATL is 6-1 straight up (SU) and 5-2 RL at the Marlins in 2020. The Braves have a +1.7 SU margin and +51.2% RL return on investment (ROI) in those games.

ATL rakes left-handed pitching. The Braves are 14-8 RL as road favorites vs. lefty starters with a +2.0 SU margin and +30.2% ROI. Also, ATL’s lineup is top-5 in several advanced hitting metrics against left-handed pitching, per FanGraphs.

Head to DraftKings Sportbook and BET the ATLANTA BRAVES -1.5 (+110) RL.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, Oct. 3 at 11:05 a.m. ET.

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Written by Geoff Clark

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