Yankees Will Even Series With Orioles

Yankees vs. Orioles, 6:35 ET

I wrote about this series yesterday, and I'm going back to the well. I was able to go 2-0 in yesterday's plays as we won on the under in this same matchup and also the under between the Braves and the Mariners. Since last week, I've had 2-0 or better days in four of the past seven days. This has been a very strong start to the baseball season. I just hope that it can continue here as we go back to the series between the Yankees and the Orioles. 

In yesterday's game, I wasn't overly confident in the Yankees or the Orioles to win the game. It turned out that it was a fairly correct assumption because the game was a 2-0 victory for the Orioles. That was the first game between the two squads this year. On the season, the Yankees have played well overall, and have been good on the road as well. This should be a tight matchup between the two clubs no matter what. Looking at the stats, the Yankees are hitting .251 for the season and have scored 148 runs. Both of these numbers are among the best in the league. Their pitching staff has been underrated this season with how dominant they've been. Collectively, the team is sporting a 3.02 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. The staff is also limiting opposing hitters to just a .218 batting average, so they are keeping the base paths clean. Today, they send out Nestor Cortes to navigate through this Orioles lineup. Cortes might have found his groove lately as he has put back-to-back quality starts. He also is chewing up a lot of innings for the Yankees as he has covered at least seven innings in three of his six starts. In his other three starts, he has thrown either four or five innings. The question really becomes: which Cortes shows up in this game? He's been great in the past against the Orioles, holding them to just a .180 batting average against him.

ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 10:  Dean Kremer #64 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches during Game 3 of the Division Series between the Baltimore Orioles and the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field on Tuesday, October 10, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

The Orioles are a fun team to watch. They have a lot of young talent, they now have an ace, they have a budding superstar, and they have a lot of role players that get the job done. As a team they are hitting well at .254 and even have more home runs than the Yankees team that has names like Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup. The way they are built, they find ways to manufacture runs both through stringing together hits and power. It is a nice mix (and to the Yankees' credit, they are doing the same this season), and I expect it to continue for the entire season. The pitching staff could still use some improvement as they are sitting at a 3.74 ERA as a team which isn't bad, but still leaves some to be desired. Today, they are sending out Dean Kremer to the mound. Kremer has been fine this season, and about what you should expect him to be. Kremer has completed over five innings just once this year - a seven-inning five-hit outing against the Pirates. He has allowed at least two earned runs in every other game and only going five innings in three of the four other starts. He has struggled a bit against the Yankees in his career with 18 hits allowed over 69 at-bats. Aaron Judge has done the majority of damage against him with three homers in 10 at-bats (four hits total). 

This is a game the Yankees should win. The total is pretty high with a 9.5 over/under, and I lean toward the under because I think Cortes is pitching well enough to limit the Orioles offense. Kremer might allow a few runs here though and I think that gives us enough indication to take New York in this one. The moneyline for the game is -122 and the line for the first five is -140. I'd prefer to play the first five, but it is a bit higher than I like to give out. I'll take the Yankees for the full game and hope there are no bullpen collapses. 

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