Guardians vs. Yankees, Game 5, 7:07 ET
This is one of the few series that I feel like I had a really good call with on most days. We've lost a play or two on it, but we hit the future and yesterday took down the first five inning play with relative ease. Now, we are back for the only series that went all five games. Unfortunately for Cleveland fans, I think the run ends here.
Cleveland is built upon one thing this year: pitching. I'm sure if you're one of the 12 people that is a fan of the Guardians, you're sick of me saying that and are talking about how great Jose Ramirez is, etc. He is great, they have some talent, but you're kidding yourself if you think the reason they are in the playoffs is their offense. Unfortunately, they have probably their worst starter taking the ball today with Aaron Civale. I probably would've tried to start Shane Bieber on short rest or something here if I could and did a bullpen game. Civale has a 4.92 ERA on the season, and has an even worse history this year as a road starter with a 5.88 ERA. He hasn't faced the Yankees in this series, and he didn't pitch against the Rays, meaning he hasn't seen live action since October 5th. He has faced the Yankees twice thsi year, both times the Guardians lost. In those two games he covered nine innings and allowed 10 earned runs. Six of those earned runs came in New York in only a three inning start.
Jameson Taillon isn't my favorite pitcher for the Yankees. I do think he is a significantly better pitcher than Civale is, though. Taillon on the year has a 3.91 ERA, but it was slightly better in his home starts. He allowed fewer home runs at home than he did on the road too. The Guardians don't really beat you with the long ball, instead they tend to chip away at you and string together hits. That could be the issue for Taillon today if he can't get strikeouts when he needs them most. Taillon pitched in the extra inning game against the Guardians and allowed three hits and two earned runs in that one. It wasn't a good look for him, but it can be different for a starter coming out of the bullpen. Sometimes the warmup and routine just throws him off. I'm sure he'll be looking for his revenge in this one. No one wants to have two of the three losses on their record in a series.
I think the Yankees win this game, and I'm not really sure it will be much of a competition. I really have no faith in Civale giving the Guardians a chance. I could be completely wrong and will have to eat crow tomorrow if I do, but I'm backing Taillon in this one. I like the 1st five run line again at Yankees -0.5 at -110.
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