Yankees And Boston Opener Should Be Loaded With Runs

Yankees vs. Red Sox, 7:10 ET

Is there any more classic of a rivalry than the Yankees and Red Sox? Football has rivalries, but I don't think there are many that stand out the way that these two clubs do. In basketball, the Lakers and Celtics are a duo that have had a feud for multiple decades. Maybe it is just something about Boston that makes them susceptible to feuds. I'm sure a Boston fan would tell you it is because they win so many championships. I'd guess the other sides of the rivalries wouldn't be as positive. Nonetheless, today we have the Yankees taking on the Red Sox in a matchup that is extra important as both are contending for the playoffs. 

I wrote an article about the American League landscape going into the second half of the season. I believe I wrote something about how the Yankees and Orioles have two of the six spots virtually assured to them. We are a little more than a week removed from the All-Star Game, and while I still think both the Yankees and Orioles will make it, my confidence-level is dropping a teeny-tiny bit. It would take an utter collapse from both clubs, but neither are playing all that well currently. The Yankees only have a 3.5-game lead on the last spot in the Wild Card race. They've lost four of their six games since coming out of the break, and now have a battle against a division foe looking to move up in both the division and Wild Card standings. It isn't just post-All-Star Break that is a concern. Since June 15th, the Yankees have struggled. They ended the break 8-18, which means they are 10-22 over their past 32 games. Tonight they put Nestor Cortes on the mound and while he has been great at home, he has been an absolute disaster on the road. In 10 road starts, covering 50.2 innings, he has allowed 34 earned runs, resulting in a 6.04 ERA. Some splits stand out and this is one that significantly stands out. The Yankees team is just 2-8 over Cortes 10 road starts this season. Not all of the road starts have been that atrocious, but he is averaging five innings and 3.5 runs allowed in his time on the mound. He has faced Boston once this season and it was a good start - but it was on his home mound - where he allowed just one earned run on a solo homer over six innings. Overall, the Red Sox hitters are batting .278 against him. 

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 08: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees celebrates his third inning home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers with his teammates in the dugout at Yankee Stadium on June 08, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

In that same article that I mentioned above, I wrote at length about why I think the Red Sox are a good bet for the second half, and to make the playoffs. They have thanked me with the confidence in them by going 1-5 since the return to action. Somehow they allowed 20 runs to the Rockies on Wednesday. Even after the extended break, I think the team needed that rest day yesterday to clear their heads and hopefully return to some positive play on the diamond. The Red Sox and Yankees have already squared off six times this season and Boston is up 4-2 in the series. The best news for them about this series is that the Yankees are currently struggling too, so they catch a bit of a break there. However, tonight's starter, Bryan Bello, has been a bit inconsistent for them this season and could use some stability here. He has posted three quality starts in his four July outings, but over his past 13 starts, he has gone a total of 69 innings and allowed 47 earned runs. June was dreadful as he allowed 22 earned in 24 innings pitched. He faced the Yankees that month and turned in 4.2 innings where he allowed four earned runs. Yankee hitters have been good against him with a hit about every three at-bats, and roughly half of them going for doubles. 

When I first looked at the line on the game I was thinking this would be a good spot to play the over with two struggling pitchers on the mound. However, I started to second guess it when the books listed the total at 10 runs. Bello has been worse at Fenway than he has on the road, and I talked about Cortes struggling on the road as well. I'm not going to be scared off of it. I'm taking the over 9.5 even if it is slightly higher juice than the typical -110 (I'm seeing it at -123 right now). 

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