Yankees And Orioles Should Score At Will

Yankees vs. Orioles, 7:15 ET

The AL East is one of the most competitive divisions I can ever remember in baseball. The Rays jumped out to a huge lead and are now in second place, stumbling. The Blue Jays are doing really well overall, but haven't really moved from third place yet this year. The Red Sox are better than I thought they would be, but are likely to be sellers at the deadline. The Yankees and Orioles, the teams that face each other today are on opposite ends of the division.

Coming into this year, I had high hopes for the Yankees. I expected their pitching staff to be a bit of a sore spot for the team, but overall, they are decent enough. Gerrit Cole is doing Cole things, Domingo German threw a perfect game, but Nestor Cortes is injured and Carlos Rodon hasn't been great since coming back from his injury. The biggest issue though is that their team isn't hitting the way they are capable of. Aaron Judge is set to come back from an injury that has kept him out basically all of June and July. That will obviously be a big addition. The issue I have is that they need more than just Judge to come around. Anthony Volpe and DJ LeMahieu are both hitting significantly worse than they are capable of. Giancarlo Stanton is hitting just .200 for the season and his power seems to have taken a dip as well. Today they send out Clarke Schmidt to the hill. Schmidt has a 4.33 overall ERA and has been slightly worse on the road than at home. He has been better during night starts though. This will be his fourth start against the Orioles this season. The Yankees are just 1-2 in his starts and his worst one was on the road early in the season.

Aaron Judge returning for the Yankees should help boost the offense against the tough Orioles. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Baltimore hasn't really had a huge stretch of amazing baseball. They've just found ways to win games over and over again. Their biggest strength seems to be the bullpen, but their starting pitching is doing enough to keep them in games. They also blend solid hitting with power when needed. Most of what I like about the Orioles is that they keep grinding away and now sit in first place. They could have had their eyes set on just getting a Wild Card spot, but the hot and cold that the Rays had this season isn't proving as strong as the consistency of the Orioles. Today's starter is Tyler Wells. Wells is the owner of a 3.65 ERA and has 110 strikeouts in 111 innings. He has been able to balance his runners allowed with a key strikeout when needed. He has been better at home than on the road, but it isn't quite that significant of a difference. This will also be the fourth time he faces the Yankees. The Orioles are just 1-2 in his starts as well.

This is a closer matchup than the books have listed. Paying -140 for the Orioles here isn't a good idea in my opinion. I think both teams are going to allow runs and I'm going to take the over 8.5 in this one. I like the idea of playing that more than a side as this is a bit of a toss-up (though I do think the Orioles are more likely to win). I'll take the over.

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