World Series Game 3 Best Bets

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The World Series is all tied up at a game apiece and the series now shifts to Atlanta for Game 3. Neither team has really struggled offensively, and we’ve detailed injuries both face in previous articles. Let’s take a look what we can do with the game tonight.

Luis Garcia takes the hill for the Astros tonight. In his first two playoff starts, he was terrible. He gave up 10 earned runs in 3.2 innings pitched. He was much more successful against the Red Sox in his second start though. In the series-clinching game, the Astros starter went 5.2 innings and allowed just one hit and no runs. This season was rough for him on the road as he threw to a 4.24 ERA. He hasn’t faced any Braves hitter yet, so there is no data we can interpret for that. He is holding hitters to just a .211 batting average against him the first time through the lineup though so it might be the second time through that the Braves hitters breakthrough. I doubt he makes it deep enough in the game to face any of them three times.

Ian Anderson makes his fourth playoff start. In his first three, he has allowed just three earned runs over 12 innings. The Braves have won all three games that he started in the postseason. Over the course of the regular season, Anderson had a 3.52 ERA at home and was consistent with his splits. The Astros have also never faced Anderson. One unique thing about Anderson is the first time through the lineup he is allowing a .247 average, then the second time through, it drops down to .179. I think that gives us a chance to play the Astros in the first three innings of the game. I’ll play the Astros after three innings at +158.

I’m also going to play the Braves at -118. I think that Anderson will be the better pitcher overall tonight and the return to Atlanta will give the Braves the edge needed to take the game.