It Won't Be A Blowout, But Arizona Should Still Win Easily

Iowa State vs. Arizona, 7:00 ET

The Big 12 has been awesome this season with numerous teams giving us a ton of great games. We have two guys in the conference who are likely going to be picked in the top three in next year's NBA Draft. We have another one who will be a lottery selection, and we have another few who have made a good name for themselves in the conference. Tonight, we have a showdown that might be as good as most conferences' championship games. This game between Iowa State and Arizona should be one of the best ones we get this week.

Iowa State enters the game with a 27-6 record for the year, and they went 12-6 in Big 12 play. I think that speaks a bit to the caliber of the conference. However, I also think it illuminates some weaknesses of the team, and shows that while they are good, they are not quite in that elite tier of play. I fully expect them to make the Sweet 16 (depending on their draw), but I do think it would be surprising to see them win much more than that. After starting the season 16-0, they went just 11-6 the remainder of the way with losses at Kansas, Cincinnati, TCU, BYU, and Arizona. The other loss was to Texas Tech who didn't have their best player. They did have some nice wins - they hosted Kansas and Houston and took down the victory. They also demolished Texas Tech yesterday in the tournament, and it was a revenge game. You can say the same about this one as Arizona made light work of the Cyclones when they played just 11 days ago. 

HOUSTON, TEXAS - FEBRUARY 22: Milan Momcilovic #22 of the Iowa State Cyclones works against Joseph Tugler #11 of the Houston Cougars during the first half at Fertitta Center on February 22, 2025 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

Arizona has been great all season, and near perfect. They are 30-2 after yesterday's victory over UCF, and went 16-2 in Big 12 play. Their only losses were to Kansas and then at home to Texas Tech in back-to-back games. Since then, they have won seven straight games with four of those being against ranked opponents. This is a team with a lot of talent and a go-to guy. Those are things that I always look for, especially when making selections for the NCAA Tournament bracket. Brayden Burries has been awesome for Arizona this year and will be a lottery pick in the NBA Draft if he chooses to enter it. He can move up even further if he has a great run in this tournament and in the Big Dance. 

There really is no question in my mind, the better team is Arizona. I think they are more complete, and if the game is close, they have the guy that I want taking the last shot. In the first matchup between the two teams, Arizona blitzed Iowa State. They were up by 12 at halftime and never looked back. Iowa State shot terribly from the field, making just 29% of their shots overall. Arizona made almost half. I do expect that to come closer to the median here, but I think Arizona is a better team and will cover the -4.5. 

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