'Wiseguys' Backing Guardians Vs. Twins In Minnesota Friday

The Cleveland Guardians (70-65) begin a pivotal 3-game set with the division co-tenant Minnesota Twins (69-67) Friday at Target Field. Despite every AL Central team's best efforts, someone has to win this division.

Cleveland holds a 1.5-game lead over both the Twins and Chicago White Sox atop the AL Central. But all three teams have a losing record over their last 20 games.

That said, BET the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (-107) at PointsBet Sportsbook because they are getting sharp action and have an edge in the pitching matchup.

Betting Deets

Guardians' Pitching > Twins'

Cleveland starting RHP Cal Quantrill (11-5, 3.55 ERA) faces Minnesota starting RHP Dylan Bundy (8-6, 4.34 ERA) and fading Bundy is one of my favorite MLB betting moves.

Bundy as a short-home favorite (-130 or less) is just 23-36 straight up (SU) in his career. His teams have a -19.7% return on investment in those spots and are losing 5.53-4.47 on average.

It seems like the sharp side of the market agrees with me (more on that in a moment). But, many of Bundy's 2022 situational splits are favorable for him in this spot.

So why is money coming in on the Guardians? The answer is Quantrill is much better on short-rest than Bundy. Both starters are pitching on four days of rest.

Quantrill is 3-1 SU on four days rest this season with a 3.44 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and an opponents' .717 slugging percentage. Whereas Bundy is 1-4 with a 6.31 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and opponents are slugging .896.

Also, Cleveland's bullpen is a lot more reliable than Minnesota's. The Guardians relievers outrank the Twins in ERA, FIP, WAR, K/BB rate and home runs allowed per nine, according to FanGraphs.

Cleveland's Other Edges

Not only is Cleveland's bullpen better but it's also more well-rested. Minnesota wrapped up a 3-game set at the New York Yankees Thursday while the Guardians had an off day. The Guardians are 4-2 SU with a rest edge and a +1.5 final margin.

All of the previous analysis is why the pros are backing the Guardians. According to OutKick's new betting tool, Cleveland's ML has been steamed from +100 on the opener up to the current price. This is in spite of good two-way action, according to Pregame.com's betting splits at the time of publishing.

The oddsmakers know the Cleveland action is sharp. Let's follow the money and BET the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (-107) at PointsBet Sportsbook and I'd be willing to play Cleveland's ML up to -130.

Written by
Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru. As a writer and host of OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark, he dives deep into the sports betting landscape and welcomes an array of sports betting personalities on his show to handicap America’s biggest sporting events. Previously, Clark was a writer/podcaster for USA TODAY's Sportsbook Wire website, handicapping all the major sports tentpoles with a major focus on the NFL, NBA and MLB. Clark graduated from St. John University.