Will Lorenzen Toss Another No-No In Philly Today?

Giants vs. Phillies, 4:05 ET

Unfortunately, I went 0-1-1 yesterday in the plays that I gave out. I wasn't really disappointed in my bet that lost - the bet was an under 8.5 runs and the teams ended up scoring 9 total. I should've just taken the Diamondbacks to win the game, but I felt more confident in the total. Oh well, the good thing is we get another day, today, to try and get our money back. We are going to do that in the Giants vs. Phillies.

The Giants are still in the playoff hunt and if you scroll through their roster you probably won't be able to identify a single player that you'd call a superstar. In fact, I'd argue that none of their players are even in the top three of any position player in the league. Still, they find a way to win because they play well as a team. They find ways to hit the ball well and at opportune times. They have a good enough pitching staff, and they have a team that fields the ball pretty well. That combination has made their squad effective enough to remain in contention despite very strange stretches where they are very hot, and some where they are very cold. The starter today is Alex Cobb. He's had a pretty average season in terms on his career. Cobb this season he has a 3.75 ERA which is top-30 in the MLB, and most of his success has come at home and during night games. Unfortunately for the Giants, this is a game on the road where he has a 5.08 ERA, and during the day, where he has a 5.44 ERA. He has also allowed four or more earned runs in his past three starts. The one bright spot is that the Phillies are just 14-for-71 against him lifetime.

Alex Cobb #38 of the San Francisco Giants takes on the Phillies today in Philadelphia (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

The Phillies are rounding into form and starting to look more and more like the team that made it to the World Series last year. Their offseason addition Trea Turner is looking like a stud once again and he even had a walk-off hit last night to send Philly fans home happy. Turner is hitting just .251 for the season, but he's had at least one hit in 15 of his last 17 games. Speaking of additions and their contribution to the Phillies, they have another one going today in Michael Lorenzen, their midseason trade acquisition. He had a pretty solid debut in Philadelphia when he made his first start of them in front of the home crowd. What happened? He tossed a no-hitter. The issue is, he might now have a tired arm as he threw 124 pitches in that game and the very next game, against the same team (this time on the road) he allowed six earned runs on eight hits. He's had a couple of stinker games this season, and he essentially either allows one or two earned runs or five or six. Giants hitters are actually pretty solid against him as well with 14 hits in 42 attempts.

This game is going to see some runs, I'll take the over in this one. I am not expecting Lorenzen to duplicate his no hitter from last time. I think in this game, he is going to allow the Giants to get a few runs, and I do think the Phillies win the game, but combining with Cobb's road performances, I think the best play is to take the over 8.5 in this one.

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