Who Will Take The AL East Crown?

Last season the American League East was one of the most interesting divisions in all of baseball. We had the Orioles ultimately win the division, but the year started with the Rays looking like the best team in baseball. There were stretches where the Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Yankees all looked like they would make a push for the playoffs. There were also stretches where they all looked like they would end in last place within the division. So, naturally, betting on something that had that much fluctuation is probably not a great idea. But… we're going to do it anyway. 

New York Yankees +185

The Yankees made some noise this offseason with the addition of Juan Soto. Last season I was a big believer in the Yankees because I thought that they would be rolling with their lineup. Virtually all hitters 1-9 would be someone that could start on almost any other team which means they have a ton of talent. Sure, some of them have had a down year, but that should be expected. The team struggled a ton last year though, especially when Aaron Judge went down. Now their pitching staff is going to have an issue to start the season with Gerrit Cole being injured. The rotation should be better with Carlos Rodon returning from injury last season, Nestor Cortes is a mainstay, and Marcus Stroman was signed as a free agent and he also was injured last year. It comes down to health essentially. On paper, this is the best team in the division, but there are so many injury concerns, they feel like more of a Wild Card team to me. 

NEW YORK, NY - JULY 26: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees reacts after hitting a home run during the first inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field on July 26, 2022 in New York City. (Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images)

Baltimore Orioles +185

After taking down the division last season, the Orioles went out and tried to bolster the rotation by adding Corbin Burnes. Now the staff has a true ace and former Cy Young winner. They also added to the back end of the bullpen by taking out a flier on Craig Kimbrel. The bullpen is the biggest strength of the Orioles and if Kimbrel becomes what he once was, this will be even more of a lock down bullpen. The lineup has quite a bit of talent and has been put together through the draft. I'm sure the team will struggle eventually with their lineup and will probably need a middle-of-the-order hitter as well, but I like their team and think their success from last year is the most replicable. I'm not sure there is a ton of value here, but I like their chances to repeat.

Toronto Blue Jays +400

I've been a staunch Blue Jays supporter for quite some time now. For whatever reason, they don't seem to get everything clicking the way they need to, but they certainly have the talent. This offseason they made an addition with Justin Turner joining the squad - he is getting up there in age, but was still productive last year. Their pitching staff is decent enough, led by Kevin Gausman, but this could be an area of concern for the team. The bullpen isn't great and one that will probably blow them some games. In a division this tight, they can't really afford that. One player to talk about as well is Alek Manoah. He was great two years ago and last year was a huge disappointment. If he is somewhere in between, they might find him in the rotation. If he is anything like the first year, the Blue Jays should make the playoffs at least. 

Tampa Bay Rays +550

Every time I think they are going to fade away, they seem to improve or make things work. They traded away one of their best pitchers, Tyler Glasnow. They lost one of their best players to being a pedophile (allegedly) in Wander Franco. And, somehow, they probably will still win 90 games this year. Their rotation is missing a ton of pitchers with Shane McClanahan on the injured list, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs are also on the injured list. They still have some good players and names in the rotation. They tend to get the most out of their staff, so they probably will be fine. It is hard to take them at this low of a number and I'd prefer for them to get off to a slow start so we can get a better number as I think they will be around the top of the division late in the season. 

Boston Red Sox +1700

They had moments of success last season, but it wasn't anything special. This year I expect much of the same. The rotation is offering very little to be encouraged about. The biggest question is if they will try and be sellers at the deadline. They have some decent enough hitters in the lineup so they could have stretches of success. I'm not taking them though, as I think their ceiling is the third-best team in the nation instead of the first. 

I think the best value here is the Blue Jays at +400, but I'd bet on the Orioles at +185. 

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