Weekend Betting Guide: NFL Week 14, NBA In-Season Tournament Championship
We are coming down off of a sports high now that the college football conference championships are behind us. Eventually, I'll incorporate college hoops into these Weekend Betting Guides. But, there aren't exciting college basketball games Friday and the big games Saturday don't have odds yet.
Weekend Betting Guide December 1-3 recap (5-3):
That said, the NFL Week 14 Sunday card might be my favorite of the season thus far. After another winning weekend, my record in these Weekend Betting Guides is 40-29-3 and my bankroll is +11.5 units (u) since the beginning of the NFL season.
Weekend Betting Guide for December 9-10
NBA In-Season Tournament Championship: Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Lakers (-4) on Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET
As much as I hate to admit it, old man LeBron James is playing at nearly the peak of his powers. LeBron destroyed the New Orleans Pelicans in the NBA In-Season Tournament semifinals. James had game highs in points (30) and assists (8) in just 23 minutes of action Thursday.
Los Angeles Lakers SF LeBron James attacks the basket vs. the New Orleans Pelicans in the inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Essentially, LeBron's supporting cast is good enough that if James keeps performing at the level we saw Saturday, the Lakers are a top-five team. Moreover, the Lakers can play both offense and defense while the Pacers have one of the worst defenses in the NBA.
Even though the NBA In-Season Tournament final is in Las Vegas, it will be a pro-Lakers crowd. Las Vegas is a short, and familiar, trip for LA residents and Lakers fans are going to pack out the T-Mobile Arena.
Bet 1.1u on Los Angeles Lakers -4 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
The 'Underdog of the Weekend': Los Angeles Rams (+7.5) at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m. ET
First of all, the market consistently overrates Baltimore in this spot. The Ravens are 0-4 against the spread (ATS) as home favorites following a bye with Lamar Jackson. Bettors inflate their odds because the Ravens are a physical team that's well-coached.
Also, this is the healthiest Rams offense since their Super Bowl run in 2021. They have two elite WRs in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford still has elite arm talent. Plus, Rams RB Kyren Williams adds another dimension to their offense.
Rams QB Matthew Stafford daps up RB Kyren Williams during a 36-19 win vs. the Cleveland Browns at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. (Harry How/Getty Images)
Plus, Rams-Ravens could be a "bad weather" game with rainy and windy conditions, which hurts both passing games. Since Stafford is a much better thrower than Lamar, the Rams will have more success through the air.
Lastly, Baltimore has a mediocre run defense when you dig into the numbers. The Ravens are 16th in defensive rushing success rate and 22nd in opponent's yards per rush. Their run defense looks better because Baltimore has gotten early leads and the opponent abandons the run game.
Bet 1.05u on Los Angeles Rams +7.5 (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook
America's Game of the Weekend: Buffalo Bills (+1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m. ET
The bottom line is if both teams play their best games, the Bills should win by at least a field goal. Buffalo is better than Kansas City in net yards per play, net early-down success rate, net pressure rate, and in high-leverage situations.
Furthermore, the Bills have beaten the Chiefs at Arrowhead in back-to-back seasons: 38-21 in 2021 and 24-20 last season. So Buffalo knows it can win this game and it needs to. The Bills are coming off of a bye and have a chance to sneak into the AFC playoffs.
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen makes pre-snap adjustments vs. the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (David Eulitt/Getty Images)
Finally, Buffalo's offense is fully healthy and Josh Allen plays very well vs. KC's defense. In the last three Bills-Chiefs meetings, which includes the 2021 AFC playoffs, Allen has a 68% completion with 324 passing yards per game, 10/0 TD/INT and a 131 QB Rating.
Bet 1.1u on Buffalo Bills +1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) on Sunday Night Football, 8:20 p.m. ET
This feels like a "scheduled loss" for the Eagles who have faced a gauntlet over the past five weeks. Philly's last four games have been against the best teams in the NFL: Dallas, Kansas City, Buffalo, and and the San Francisco 49ers.
The Eagles should've lost to the Cowboys in Week 9. Dallas out-gained Philadelphia by more than 100 total yards and the Cowboys made boneheaded mistakes at the end of that game.
Dallas Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson and Dak Prescott celebrate a TD vs. the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. (Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
On top of that, the 49ers soften teams up. Since last season, teams are 7-21 straight up and 9-17-2 ATS the week after playing San Francisco.
When you remove the team names and win-loss records, Dallas is tiers above Philadelphia in net efficiency. The Cowboys are 2nd in expected points added per play differential and the Eagles are 8th.