Webb And Lorenzen Will Put Up Zeros On The Scoreboard

Giants vs. Rangers, 8:05 ET

Ever see yourself doing something and just start thinking "Why… why am I doing this to myself?" That’s kind of the thought I had as soon as I started publicly giving this play. There aren’t too many games/times that I look at a book and try to avoid a line, but I’ve tried to purposefully stay away from games involving one of the starters in today’s game. For whatever reason, he has gotten the best of me. Still, I believe in second chances (or 10 chances) and will put a play on the game between the Giants and the Rangers, even with Logan Webb on the hill.

If you have a good read on the Giants, trust yourself more than you trust me in this game. San Francisco is one of those teams that I can see patterns with, but I can’t get the result I’m looking for. What do we know about the Giants this season? To me, their hitting is overperforming to this point, and I think their pitching staff is about right or slightly underperforming. They are a better home team than they are on the road (not much of a surprise). A deeper dive makes me wonder if they are just struggling due to their division, but it doesn’t show that as they are 13-13 against their division – in line with their overall record and most of their competitors within the division. They’ve been very bad against the AL though with just a 2-7 record. Let’s see how they do today against an American League foe. I hate to even write about him, but Webb takes the ball to try and stop the Rangers. Let’s be clear, Webb is a very good pitcher. His numbers back that statement up and most of his performances. What can you expect from him? He is likely to turn in six or seven innings, and will probably only allow a couple of runs. However, he has made four starts this season where he has allowed four or more earned runs. That’s one bad start every four outings. Acceptable, but probably room for improvement. He has struggled on the road with a 4.34 ERA compared to just 1.71 at home, but he’s dominated Rangers hitters in the past, collectively holding them to under a .200 batting average. 

Apr 27, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen (23) pitches against the Cincinnati Reds during the third inning at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Rangers are arguably one of the biggest surprises in baseball. Perhaps the long run last year caused some injuries this season. I’m not really sure, but what I do know is that they need to get healthy in a hurry in order to get back into the postseason and have a hope of defending their crown. Even though they are under .500 they are just 4.5 games back in the division, so there is still plenty of time, and more importantly, opportunity to take the division. Corey Seager did get injured a couple of days ago, so we will see how this impacts them. To battle Webb, the Rangers are sending out Michael Lorenzen. He has been a solid addition to the club this year, now throwing four consecutive quality starts. He’s had two bad starts where he combined to allow 11 earned runs. He’s only allowed 18 all season so take out those 12 innings and 11 earned runs and his season stats are 42.2 innings with just 7 earned runs allowed. You have to like those numbers. Still the question remains… when will the stinker start reappear? The Rangers are also just 3-6 in his starts this year. Giants hitters have gotten the best of Lorenzen in most games as they have gone 16-for-51 against him (.314), but just four of those hits have gone for extra-bases. 

This is a bit more of a toss up game than you’d think, when Webb is on, he is one of the best pitchers in baseball. When he is off, he gets rocked. Lorenzen has had a couple of bad starts, but the majority of his work this season has been positive. I think we can get an under through five innings in this one. Hopefully both pitchers are on their "A" game. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024