NFL Week 2 Thursday Night Football Pick For Washington Commanders At Green Bay Packers

Two preseason NFC contenders to make Super Bowl 60 play on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 2 as the Green Bay Packers (1-0) host the Washington Commanders (1-0). Both drilled their Week 1 opponents: Green Bay boat-raced the Detroit Lions 27-13, and Washington destroyed the lowly New York Giants 21-6. 

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Call me "Mr. Thursday Night Football" because I'm 15-2 on my Circa Million NFL handicapping contest picks for Thursday Night Football games since 2023. This doesn't count towards that record, but last Thursday, I got dumb-lucky when cashing my Under 47.5 in the Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles bet for OutKick's Newsletter pick of the day. 

I'm going to the betting window for this game because the coaching matchup fits my successful Thursday Night Football betting system, the Packers are one of the best home teams in the NFL, and the Commanders may close as a public 'dog. 

Prediction: Packers 30, Commanders 21 

First of all, I almost always back the better coach on Thursday Night Football because the shorter prep time hurts the weaker coach. With that in mind, Dan Quinn's teams are 2-5 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) on Thursdays, whereas Green Bay is 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS under head coach Matt LaFleur. The Packers are 35-10 SU and 28-17 ATS as a home favorite in the LaFleur era. 

Also, Green Bay's Week 1 victory was more impressive. Both won by nearly the same margin, but the Giants were projected to finish last in the NFC East entering this season, while Detroit was the betting favorite to win the NFC North. No one was surprised to see the NYG lay an egg last week, yet the Packers' crushing of the Lions was unexpected. 

Furthermore, after acquiring All-Pro Micah Parsons, Green Bay's defense could be a top-five unit in football. If everything breaks right for Washington's defense, its ceiling is top-10 to 15. Yes, the Commanders shut down the Giants Sunday. However, the NYG suck, and the Packers held the Lions, who had one of the best offenses in the NFL last season, to 3.8 yards per play last week. 

Lastly, according to Pro Football Focus, more bets and money are on Washington at the time of writing. Granted, I don't bow at the altar of betting splits, but I like to be on the same side as the sportsbooks whenever possible. Plus, it makes sense that the public will back the Commanders because QB Jayden Daniels is a stud, and they were in the NFC championship last season. 

Best Bet: Green Bay Packers -3 (-110, up to -3.5) at BetMGM 

• Unfortunately, I already gave out Green Bay -3.5 in the OutKick Newsletter Thursday morning, which is the bet I'll use for my public record. That said, the Packers -3 is the best available spread at the time of writing.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.