Virginia Will Make Light Work Of Tar Heels

North Carolina vs. Virginia, 12:00 ET

College hoops has treated me rather well this week, so I am excited for this Saturday. If we are being totally honest, this is the first College Basketball Saturday that I've spent a lot of time on this year. Not just in 2026, but in the basketball calendar year. There has been too much other football going on for me to really focus on the College Basketball Saturday schedule. Today's first action comes in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Virginia Cavaliers.

North Carolina isn't getting a lot of hype this season, and frankly, something surprising is happening over in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels were a team that had a ton of talent coming each and every season. I know they are still good and still have good players, but who is the last truly great player that donned the baby blue? There have been some good, maybe even great, college players, but who has gone onto the NBA to have success like so many others before them? The most recent I can think of is Coby White on the Bulls, and he is at best a third option, and probably would be best as a scoring sixth man. Walker Kessler and Cam Johnson are both in the NBA and very good, but not superstars. The last superstar they have had was probably Vince Carter in 1998. Maybe they have found one in freshman standout Caleb Wilson, but time will tell. In any case, the team has struggled lately, losing three of the past five games, all three on the road. They fell to SMU, then Stanford, and finally Cal. The loss to SMU was the worst, dropping that game by 14 points. They also have lost a game on a neutral floor to Michigan State earlier in the year with a 74-58 loss. 

Virginia has reinvented itself this season, and we are seeing quite a bit of offensive firepower. They also don't have superstars, but it seems like their talent might be better - that or they just play better together. For the season, the Cavaliers are 16-2 and have a 5-1 record in the ACC. Over the past few years, they were more of a defensive-minded team. The identity has changed with their coaching change, and they are now consistently scoring in the high 70s or low 80s. Before, they used to only score in the 60s, and scoring in the 50s wasn't that rare either. Their two losses have been a bit surprising. They fell to Butler in a neutral court meeting during the Thanksgiving tournament, and they dropped a game to Virginia Tech on the road in triple-overtime. What has been best, in my opinion, about Virginia this season is that they've found ways to have different guys get involved. They have already had seven different leading scorers, despite only three guys averaging over 10 points per game. 

This should be a pretty decent matchup, but North Carolina has a bit of a problem. They don't have an overly deep team, and they clearly are struggling on the road. Virginia is a pretty solid team with balance throughout. They have a decent front-court, but their backcourt is aggressive defensively and can score with most other guards. I think this is a game we see some impressive work out of the Cavaliers and they take down the Tar Heels. This is about as close to the line as I would play, so no more than -6.5. If it starts to get to 8.5, North Carolina is probably the correct side. 

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