Value Play As Rangers Take On Brewers

Rangers vs. Brewers, 8:10 ET

Have you ever had that feeling where everything is seemingly fine, but it still isn't quite going the way you want it to go. The idea of things being acceptable, but not quite the way you envisioned it. Almost like you're content, but not quite happy. That's the best way to describe this month of baseball betting for me. It was nice to start, then got bleak, and since has been a roller coaster of games. I bring this up mostly because I want readers to know current form, and if you end up reading one piece and it is a winner, that doesn't mean they all will be. Just like if it is a loser, they won't all be losers. I'm on the hunt for a winner and I think I've found one in the game between the Rangers and Brewers. 

The Rangers come into Milwaukee looking to try and leave with a .500 record at the end of the three-game series. It has been an interesting 10 days for the Rangers as they lost five in a row and now are on a four-game winning streak. The worst of the losses was a three-game sweep at the hands of their division foes, the Seattle Mariners. With the Mariners leading the division, that is not the team you want to lose to. Still, it was nice for them to rebound a bit, and the good news is that Max Scherzer debuted for 2024 yesterday and looked very sharp. They don't have an Ace on the mound today, but they do have a reliable arm in Michael Lorenzen. For the season Lorenzen is 4-3 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, both of those numbers are strong, but not in the top rankings of the MLB because he hasn't pitched enough innings to qualify. He has been better on the road than he has in Texas, which is encouraging for tonight's contest. He also has produced six quality starts in his past seven games. Lorenzen has faced the Brewers hitters in 30 total at-bats. He has allowed just two hits. Do not start Christian Yelich today as he is just 2-for-17 against Lorenzen. 

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JUNE 11: Freddy Peralta #51 of the Milwaukee Brewers throws a pitch in the third inning against the Oakland Athletics at American Family Field on June 11, 2023 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)

The Brewers could be one of the few MLB teams that are flying under the radar this season with how good they are playing. Their lineup has been as reliable as any this year and could be a very tough team to face in the playoffs. Most of them have some playoff experience now, so this could be the year that they finally win a couple of series and make a run in the postseason. Of course, that comes down to more than just their lineup. The bullpen hasn't been bad, but doesn't have the fear-inducing arm of Josh Hader that it once had. The rotation is also a bit of a concern as their best arm is Freddy Peralta. Peralta is good, but I don't think his is going to be mistaken for an Ace either. Peralta gets the ball tonight against the Rangers. For the season, Peralta is 5-4 with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Good numbers, but closer to a second or third guy rather than the one you'd want to open a playoff series. He has also struggled in Milwaukee this season with a 4.91 ERA, compared to a 3.49 road ERA. His last home start was a disaster as he allowed six earned runs on 10 hits over 5.1 innings to the Reds. Rangers hitters have seen Peralta, but not a ton as they are just 9-for-36 against him. 

Unless I'm missing something, this line seems very off. The Brewers are -180 favorites in this and I have this closer to a pick'em. The Rangers should be able to win this game behind Lorenzen. I do like Peralta (even if my description above wasn't exactly a glowing recommendation), but I think this isn't a great spot for him. The Rangers are playing better baseball currently than the Brewers as well. I get that the Rangers aren't great on the road, and the Brewers are good at home, but the value is too much. I'm taking the Rangers through five innings at +144. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024