Value On Dogs In NL Division Series

Yesterday, I put out a post about the AL Division Series Preview. In an effort to keep everything fair, and for you to get a taste of some baseball on this beautiful Friday morning, I'm sharing my thoughts on the National League Divison Series. I think these are going to be great matchups as we have last year's World Series representative, a team with a prolific offense, an upstart, young team, and a squad that has had too many issues to name but still finds ways to win.

Phillies vs. Braves

The Phillies are back in the Divisional Series. Last season, they were able to take down this same Braves squad in four games. They didn't have the home-field advantage in that series either, so the question is: Will history repeat itself, or are the Braves going to bash the Phillies the way they have clubbed everyone else this year? I am pro-Phillies. Frankly, I probably am just a fan of any team Kyle Schwarber plays for, but either way, I was high on the Phillies when the season started, and I'm not backing down on them now. I like their team, but don't really like their pitching matchups in this series. I'd guess that Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are able to pitch one game each and maybe one of them can throw a Game 5 if it gets to it. The Braves are rested, which might be good for the pitching staff, but could be very bad for the offense. Then again, have you seen the stats for the lineup? It is like a video game. They have five guys with over 30 home runs (one with 50 and two with 40!) and their catchers have combined for 33 home runs on the season. In terms of RBIs, they have four guys with 100 and another with 97. Three of their players had over 110 runs scored and another was at 96. For comparison's sake, the Phillies had one player hit more than 30 homers. Two guys had 100 or more RBIs (one more had 97), and only two players had 100 or more runs scored.

So, yes, in theory, the Braves are the better team when it comes to hitting. They probably are the better team when it comes to their pitching staff too. Max Fried is currently scheduled in this series, so it gets better, and the Braves can throw him or Spencer Strider twice if needed. They also have Bryce Elder, but Charlie Morton, an older guy, but reliable, especially in the playoffs, is also unlikely to pitch in the playoffs. Maybe they have a bullpen game? The Braves took eight of 13 games this season against the Phillies. Still, something about the team seems like the expectation that they will just continue mashing as the bright lights and the tightness of the playoffs come around doesn't seem likely. There is too much value on the Phillies in this series at +145 for me to pass up. I don't like betting against a team that seemingly has it all, but the Braves have a history of being the best team in baseball and doing nothing in the playoffs. It will be a small play for me, but I'll take the +145 on the Phillies and see if they can repeat last year's success.

PHOENIX, AZ - APRIL 11: Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) throws to the plate during a regular season game between the Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks on April 11, 2023 at Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers

This is an exciting series as well if you've followed the teams this season. Out of the gates, the Diamondbacks had to face the Dodgers eight times in their first 10 games. They were able to go 5-3 in those games. The Diamondbacks were even leading the division at the All-Star Break. Then, they started the 2nd Half and it was a disaster as they lost 20 of their first 25 games. They were 52-39 at the All-Star Break and after that stretch were 57-59. The Dodgers took over the division at that point and never looked back. The Dodgers also were able to beat the Diamondbacks all five times they faced each other in the second half. The Diamondbacks are a bit of a streaky team just looking at their schedule results. They did what they needed to though and got into the playoffs. Then they took care of the Milwaukee Brewers, as a road team, and swept the first two games. They didn't look like young players scared of the moment. They looked poised and ready to keep rolling.

Tony Gonsolin, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Dustin May, Trevor Bauer, and, of course, Clayton Kershaw, will lead the way for the Dodgers. What's that? Only one of those pitchers is available for the Dodgers? Oh. Two are dealing with off-field stuff (and Bauer might not have still been on the Dodgers even if he wasn't) but the other three were expected to help lead Los Angeles to the World Series. Now they need to depend on Clayton Kershaw once again and a combination of young pitchers. The Dodgers offense can carry them past the Diamondbacks, but I'm not sure their pitching could get them much further if they do advance. And, if the Arizona starters are locked in, this could be an upset as I think the Diamondbacks hitters do have the potential to bother two or three of the Dodgers starters. I think the books are also offering too much value here on the Diamondbacks to pass up. At +175, you can take a team that is playing well, playing loose, and somewhat playing with house money. The Dodgers don't have the starting staff to win long series right now. Sure, their hitting can get hot and carry them like they did in the 2nd Half, but that's less likely in the playoffs. If I put a half unit on the Phillies, I'll take the other half and put it on these Diamondbacks.

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