Value Bet On Padres As Line Is A Bit Off

Padres vs. Blue Jays, 7:07 ET

I've mentioned this before, but it bears repeating: Tracking how a team performs is significantly harder in baseball than it is in most other sports. The reason is because there are so many games, and outside of the first month or so, it can be a big challenge to tell if a team is better than another one just based on the overall record. Current form is important to pay attention to but it isn't everything, and we are looking at that here between the Padres and the Blue Jays.

The Padres come into this game with a 27-19 record, which is great, but what if I told you that five games ago they were 26-15. While the record is still impressive and positive, this is a bad stretch for the team. Going back to my original point, if this happened in the first couple of weeks of the season, it would be much more noticeable than it is now. Just a tip for those starting to handicap, don't fall in love with the overall makeup of a team, always check on their current productivity. It may sound obvious, but it is easy to look at this game and see a below .500 team favored significantly over a team that is eight games over, and think "Oh, the Padres will win." In order to get a win and snap this skid, the Padres hope that Randy Vasquez can give them a good outing. Vasquez is 3-3 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. That WHIP is concerning, but even with traffic on the bases, he seems to be getting out of it. He has posted back-to-back quality starts, and hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in seven of his nine starts. Actually, if you take out his poor start against the Tigers, he has 42.1 innings of work and just 11 earned runs allowed this season. Blue Jays hitters are batting .312 against him in 16 at-bats. 

HOUSTON, TEXAS - APRIL 21: Kevin Gausman #34 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches during the first inning against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park on April 21, 2025 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

The Blue Jays aren't having a great season, but they aren't bad either. The same can be said about their recent performance. They've lost three of five, but have been relatively competitive in each of the games. In two of the three losses, they dropped the game by one run. Still, this team is already five games out of first place and the reality is that they probably need to win the division, or at least make the Yankees sweat if they want to have a chance to make the postseason. There are just too many teams in the Central and West that are likely to have winning records for the Blue Jays, or anyone else in the division, to find a way to the postseason via Wild Card with an average record. To try and get them a victory tonight is their ace, Kevin Gausman. I've written about his success for the team numerous times, and this season he is still throwing well with a 3-4 record, 4.59 ERA, but just a 1.06 WHIP. When Gausman is going good, he is one of the best. When he struggles, it can get ugly. In nine starts, he has two where he has allowed six earned runs. He has allowed three or more earned runs in four of his outings. The rest, two or fewer. Even though he is doing a decent job of keeping guys off base, offenses are getting the few runners across the plate. Padres hitters are batting .288 against him in 170 at-bats as well.

This is a game that I feel like will head toward the over. I'm not really confident in getting there because there is a chance Gausman can rebound from his last start. After he allowed six runs to the Yankees, he went six innings and allowed one hit, no runs, to the Guardians. The Padres have a better chance, but good pitchers do usually rebound. The problem is I feel like that's baked into the line a bit too much. I think there is a lot of value on San Diego tonight. The Blue Jays should be favored, but not by this much. Even with the recent form of San Diego, it isn't like Toronto is playing that much better. Back the Padres on the moneyline. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024