Value Bet On D'Backs Taking Down Slumping Phillies

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies, 6:40 ET

I had a really weird win yesterday. It wasn't weird that I won, it was strange how it happened. And, I guess it was technically a split as I lost the plus money play but I won the other play that I took. I bet that the White Sox would lose to the Royals on the run line, and that they wouldn't score over their team total. The White Sox won 2-0. Nothing crazy, but you're not going to get a lot of games where you win on a team scoring under 2.5 or 3.5 runs, and they win the game. Today, I am hoping to win and profit instead of just winning and pushing with MLB betting as the Diamondbacks take on the Phillies. 

Arizona is off to a fair start to begin the season, sitting at 7-6. I believe that I mentioned this previously, but the team is almost certainly going to be around .500 for the entire season. They have a lot of nice pieces, but there isn't anything about the Diamondbacks that really makes me think they are going to make a run this season. If everything clicks, sure. However, can't that be said for most teams? For the season, the Diamondbacks are not exactly hitting great at .224, but that might be a reason for optimism because the offense probably should be a strength, at least compared to the pitching. However, their pitchers are the ones who look great at the moment with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Today, they get one of the pleasant surprises of the young season, Mike Soroka, taking the mound. Soroka has allowed just one earned run on eight hits and four walks over 10 innings this season. Having pitched for the Nationals, he does have some experience against the Phillies, and they've hit him well, batting .275 against him. 

 (Getty Images)

The Phillies are expected to be one of the better teams in the National League, but through their first four series, they are just .500 at 6-6. That can be attributed to the offense not looking very sharp to start the year. They are hitting just .220 for the season, and they've only scored 42 runs this year. That means they are averaging just 3.5 runs per game. That might not be too bad, but the pitching staff isn't helping, considering opponents are hitting .264 against them. The Phillies also haven't scored in their last 20 innings. Today, they turn to Jesus Luzardo to stop the bleeding. After a very rough first outing, he was good against Colorado. He allowed six runs in six innings to Texas in his first start, but rebounded with one run over 6.2 innings against the Rockies. The Diamondbacks are hitting .240 against Luzardo in 50 at-bats with Ketel Marte looking really good, going 4-for-9. 

On the one hand, you've got two really good pitchers who look like they will command the game. That leads me to believe this could be an under. On the other hand, you have two offenses that have been struggling. Perhaps returning home will give the Phillies what they need to get their offense rolling again. That makes me believe it could be an over. As you can see, I'd be battling myself, and I'm not convinced. What I am convinced of is that the price on the game is wrong. The Diamondbacks are +163 to win the game and I think that is good value. It may not hit, but that's where I'm putting my money on this one. I have this game being closer to the Phillies at -125/130 than the current line so I'll take Arizona. 

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