Valspar Championship 2024: Picks, One-And-Done Pick, Head-To-Heads
The PGA TOUR concludes its Florida Swing this week with the Valspar Championship 2024 at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida. Two years ago, when I was winning money betting on the TOUR, I hit an outright on Sam Burns in the Valspar. I bricked the Valspar last year even though all four of my guys made the cut.
READ ‘Par Talk’: Scottie Scheffler Loves The Opportunity, Xander Schauffele Hates It, And The Players Delivering What Is Needed
Last week was a profitable one for me at THE PLAYERS Champion. Albeit a slight profit. I added +0.91 units (u) to my PGA TOUR 2024 bankroll but I'm still -18.18u on the season. The highlights of my PLAYERS betting card include a 3-0 performance in tournament matchup bets and Hideki Matsuyama, Shane Lowry, and Doug Ghim all cashing top-20 bets.
Since I've never golfed a hole in my life and I'm still relatively new to the sport, I spend a lot of time researching these courses. I'm not going to BS you guys into thinking I'm an expert. Instead, I'll share the Copperhead Course breakdown from Betsperts' golf analyst, Ron Klos.
My gambling strategy is to profit 20u for every outright golf winner bet. I'll back that golfer in a placement market (top-5, -10, or -20 finishes) because I'd be sick to my stomach if one of my guys finished inside the top five and I didn't profit. Is this the right way to bet golf? I don't know. Regardless, shop around for placement bets because most legal U.S. sportsbooks apply "dead heat" rules for ties.
Valspar Championship 2024 ‘Horses for the Course’
Stats courtesy of Bet The Number from the Tour Junkies, Fantasy National by Pat Mayo, and the PGA Tour.
Brian Harman
The 2023 Champion Golfer of the Year is streaky and he is playing well coming into the Valspar. Harman finished T2 at the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship, T9 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and T12 at the Genesis Scottish Open in his three starts before winning the 151st Open Championship. The Bulldog tied for 12th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational two weeks ago and tied for second at last week's PLAYERS Championship.
Also, Harman pops on my model and his game fits this course, even though he has three missed cuts with just one T5 in his four starts at the Valspar. Harman is third in total SG at comp courses to Innisbrook, 10th in Strokes Gained (SG): Putting on Poa trivialis (overseed) greens, 12th in Par 5 scoring, and 17th in SG: Approach (APP), over the last 30 rounds, according to Bet The Number.
Brian Harman watches his ball after an approach shot from the pine straw at the 18th hole in THE PLAYERS Championship 2024. (Bob Self/Florida Times-Union/USA TODAY NETWORK)
There are five golfers with odds of +2200 or shorter at DraftKings Sportsbook. The other four are Xander Schauffele (+650), Sam Burns (+1400), Justin Thomas (+1400), and Jordan Spieth (+2000). Even though Burns went back-to-back at Innisbrook in 2021-22, I like Harman the most at this price range. Again, Harman won The Open this past summer and is in better current form.
The first thoroughbred for Innisbrook: Brian Harman
- Win: +2200 at DraftKings (0.91u to win 20u)
- Top-10: +200 at BetMGM (0.59u to win 1.18u)
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Min Woo Lee
On one hand, distance off-the-tee (OTT) is mitigated at Innisbrook by the 12 doglegs. On the other, ball-striking power is still a strength at this course because of all the long APP shots and the five Par 3s that are 195+ yards. In Min Woo's case, he's one of the most powerful ball strikers in the world. Over the last 30 rounds, Lee is third in this field for ball speed and 11th in SG: OTT, per Bet The Number.
For whatever reason, Min Woo sucks with his irons and ranks 109th in SG: APP on TOUR this season. Yet, he's able to score anyway because Lee crushes the ball OTT and is nasty with his flat-stick, especially on tough courses like Innisbrook. The 25-year-old Aussie has picked up strokes on the greens in seven of his eight career majors with shot-link data, per DataGolf.com.
Min Woo Lee lines up his putt on the 17th green during the third round of The Open Championship 2023 at Royal Liverpool in England. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
With that in mind, Lee plays well on tougher courses. He tied for second at the Cognizant Classic earlier this month at one of the hardest courses on TOUR, PGA National. Finally, remember how I was saying the Par 5s at Innisbrook aren't reachable with two strokes? Well, Min Woo is one of the few golfers in the world who might be able to hit the green in two strokes on those Par 5s.
The second thoroughbred for Innisbrook: Min Woo Lee
- Win: +3500 at Bet365 (0.57u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +150 at BetMGM (0.93u to win 1.4u)
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Doug Ghim
This is going to blow up in my face. Ghim has never won on the PGA TOUR in 123 career starts and has missed the cut 56 times. That said, Ghim is playing his a** off lately. He ranks fifth in my 30-round model at Bet The Number. Doug cashed a top-20 bet for me at last week's PLAYERS Championship when he tied for 16th.
Ghim finished T16 at the Cognizant, T8 at the Mexico Open, T12 at the WM Phoenix Open, and T13 at the Farmers Insurance Open in his four starts before THE PLAYERS. He's gained strokes in both OTT and on APP in six straight events. Innisbrook has narrow fairways and Ghim is 12th on TOUR this season in driving accuracy.
Finally, Doug leads the PGA TOUR in Par 5 scoring this season. At difficult courses such as Innisbrook, golfers must score at these Par 5s. As long as he can save par at the tougher holes, Ghim should be able to score enough on the Par 5s to be on the first page of the leaderboard at the Valspar.
The third thoroughbred for Innisbrook: Doug Ghim
- Win: +4500 at Bet365 (0.44u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +188 at BetMGM (0.77u to win 1.44u)
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Maverick McNealy
This is a guy I've never bet on, so I'm excited to lose money on a new golfer this week. Yay!! Just kidding, kind of. But, what draws me to Maverick at the Valspar is his insane short game. Over the last 30 rounds, McNealy ranks second in this field for SG: Around-the-Green (ARG) and 12th in SG: Putting on overseed greens.
Furthermore, it's harder to hit greens in regulation at the Copperhead Course. Because of this, I like that Maverick can "get up and down" to save par when he misses the green. He gained 7.9 strokes ARG last week at THE PLAYERS en route to a T9. McNealy hasn't missed a cut yet this season and has a T13 in Mexico and a T6 in Phoenix as well.
Also, Maverick is flushing it with the driver recently. Over his last 24 rounds, McNealy is hitting the ball five mph harder than the TOUR average and gaining 0.39 strokes OTT per round vs. the field. Like Min Woo, Maverick's issue is his iron-play. But, he can save par or even score from off the green if he's errant with his approach shots.
The fourth thoroughbred for Innisbrook: Maverick McNealy
- Win: +6000 at Bet365 (0.33u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +200 at BetMGM (0.67u to win 1.33u)
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Head-to-Head Matchups at DraftKings
Nick Taylor (-115) over Adam Hadwin
I’m prioritizing recent form over course history here. Hadwin won the 2017 Valspar with a T12 in 2018 and T7 in 2022. But, Hadwin missed the cut in four of his other five starts at Innisbrook including last season and a T71 in the other. Adding to that, Taylor is on a heater and ranks fifth in this field for total strokes gained over the last 20 rounds, per Bet the Number.
Taylor was T7 at the Sony Open in January, won the WM Phoenix Open last month, finished T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational two starts ago, and T26 at THE PLAYERS Championship last week. He would’ve finished higher on that leaderboard but Taylor shot a 76 (+4) in the third round. Nick has picked up strokes with his irons and putter in six of his last seven starts, per Fantasy National.
Hadwin on the other hand, has been up and down lately. Adam has lost strokes on the greens in four of his last five starts and has missed the cut in two of his last four events. Finally, approach stats are the most predictive in golf. Over the last 30 rounds, Hadwin ranks 107th in SG: APP and Taylor is sixth, according to Bet The Number.
BET 1.15u on Nick Taylor (-115) to beat Adam Hadwin
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Jordan Spieth (+160) over Xander Schauffele
You can tell by the odds that Xander is the better golfer currently. I’m not arguing otherwise. Heck, Schauffele is my top-ranked golfer in this field by the stats. However, he took a tough loss last week at THE PLAYERS, tying for second place when he was the favorite on the back-nine to win. I’m not convinced that Xander will be locked in for this non-"signature event" and non-major.
Spieth missed the cut at THE PLAYERS last week, so we are buying him at a low point. But, Jordan is having a good season. Spieth was third at The Sentry in January and T6 in Phoenix last month. He was playing well at the Genesis Invitational before getting disqualified for an error on his scorecard.
Jordan Spieth looks over the 11th green during the 2018 Valspar Championship tournament at Innisbrook Resort - Copperhead Course. (Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)
Golfers keep their drivers in the bag at the Copperhead Course because of all the 12 doglegs. The driver is Spieth’s weakest club, so Innisbrook is a good course for him. Last season, Jordan was T3 in the Valspar and Xander was T12. All the laying up forces long approach shots into the green. Spieth is second in the field for birdies-or-better when "going for the green" over the last 30 rounds, per Bet The Number.
BET 0.85u on Jordan Spieth (+160) to beat Xander Schauffele
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Valspar Championship 2024 One-And-Done Pick: Min Woo Lee
Through the first 10 events of the 2024 Mayo Cup (the One-And-Done contest I entered this season), I'm tied for 462nd out of 4,400 entries with $6,336,494 collected. If my one-and-done league ended today, I would've profited $240 on my $200 entry.
Previous Picks
- J.T. Poston for the Sony Open: 6th for $300,875
- Xander Schauffele for the American Express: T3 for $635,600
- Sahith Theegala for the Farmers Insurance Open: T64 for $19,080
- Jordan Spieth for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: T39 for $70,125
- Tom Kim for the WM Phoenix Open: T17 for $125,400
- Collin Morikawa for the Genesis Invitational: T19 for $251,400
- Taylor Pendrith for the Mexico Open: Missed cut for $0
- Tom Hoge for the Cognizant Classic: T28 for $59,014
- Scottie Scheffler for the Arnold Palmer Invitational: 1st for $4,000,000
- Hideki Matsuyama for THE PLAYERS Championship: T6 for $875,000
Min Woo Lee plays from the 18th fairway during the third round of THE PLAYERS Championship 2024. (David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports)
As you can see, I already used Schauffele and Spieth in this league. I'm using Lee here because he's got the game to win at any course on TOUR. Plus, I want to save Harman for a bigger event such as the Travelers Championship, which he plays well in. Since this is a non-"signature event", I'm willing to gamble a little bit more with my one-and-done pick.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.