UCLA Could Upset Purdue

Purdue vs. UCLA, 10:00 ET

College Basketball will not take center stage after last night's College Football National Championship game. With football out of the way, I would guess that most casual fans of college hoops will start to take a little more notice. Still, it won't be anything like what happens when there is March Madness. It is a good time to familiarize yourself with how teams have been doing and who the potential champions are this season. One team that at least has a solid shot is the Purdue Boilermakers who take on the UCLA Bruins tonight.

Purdue enters the game with a 17-1 record and a 7-0 conference mark. They are ranked as the fourth best team in the nation at the moment, and have played some really impressive ball this season. I talked about it a bit last year after they lost Zach Edey, but the transformation that Purdue made was pretty impressive. They went from a team that focused on one guy to having to establish a new identity, and figure out a new offense. They really didn't miss a beat, and they continue to excel this year. The lone loss on the calendar for the Boilermakers this season has been against Iowa State. They were demolished in that game, and to make matters worse, it was a home game for Purdue. This is the second game for Purdue of a West Coast trip. They took down USC in their last game, winning by just five points. I have a bit of a concern that they are teetering toward a loss as they have played in four straight close matchups. They have won all four, but none of them by 10 points. 

UCLA does not quite have that same impressive record that Purdue has. They aren't quite bad this year, but they are probably going to be a bubble team if they can't string together a bunch of wins, or get some quality victories this year. They are 12-6 for the season, and just 4-3 in Big Ten play. Their losses have been against a good Arizona team, a decent Cal team, a strong Gonzaga team, and then at Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. One good note for them is that all of their losses have either been on the road or on a neutral floor. That's good because they are the home team, and they have been able to win every home game this season by at least six points. I don't think the Bruins are the most impressive team in the world. They are very guard-heavy with four of their top-five scorers on the team playing guard. Their highest scorer, though, is their forward Tyler Bilodeau. He is averaging 18.5 points per game this season, shooting almost 40-50-90 from the field. That's impressive work at any level.  

If this game is played 100 times, I think Purdue probably wins about 70% of the time. They are a better team, with more consistent players. However, It think at the current moment, they aren't quite as dominant as you would expect. They do have guards that can play good defense and could neutralize the effectiveness of what UCLA wants to get done. I just think there is enough balance and redundancy on UCLA to keep the game close. I'm not going to tell you I feel overly confident in this pick. It is a 1u play for me, but I will take the Bruins tonight with the points. I also do think they could win the game.

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