Two Of The Strongest Teams Battle With Elite Eight On The Line

Illinois vs. Houston, 10:05 ET

I'm sure that it happens every year, but the matchups for the Sweet 16 this year feel awesome. With a full year behind us, I don't really remember who was playing last season. It probably was exciting though. That's what is great about the Tournament. It is always different and we never know what to expect. We do know that there won't be four #1 seeds in the Final Four, but we have some big games to determine who does go. After today, we will be down to 12 teams, and half of the Elite Eight will be set. One of the teams looking to punch their ticket is either Illinois or Houston. 

You could probably make a case that Illinois has looked like the best team in the NCAA Tournament so far. In their first game of the tournament, against Penn, they destroyed their opponent, winning 105-70. This was a pretty obvious and expected result. Against VCU, the team didn't look quite as crisp, but they were still in control for almost the entirety of the game. They shot about 40% from deep in the game, but they only took 24. They were able to get to the bucket and put in easier baskets. VCU actually had eight more shots, but Illinois did a lot of damage on the free-throw line as well. Still, watching this game it felt like Illinois could've played better. I am probably splitting hairs right now, because all that matters is a win, and they won it by 21. This will be a major challenge, though, as they have to play a tough Houston team that plays ferocious defense. 

Houston is another team you might be able to make an argument for being the best in the NCAA Tournament. In their two games, they have also barely broken a sweat. In fairness to them, they've also faced a 15-seed and a 10-seed. They beat Idaho by 31 points, and then they beat Texas A&M by 31 points as well. Houston has had one bad stretch this season, dropping three straight games to Iowa State, Arizona, and Kansas. Those three games were relatively close, with only the Kansas game being decided by more than seven points. The Cougars are a tough team that relies on defense to demoralize their opponent. They switch very well, guard the three-point line, and give up very few good looks. In those three losses, they didn't shoot particularly well, but they also lost the points in the paint battle (with Kansas tying them). It isn't a complex game. Limit open threes, and keep people from scoring in the paint. 

In the first round, I had a game that I circled because I felt like they would be able to win as essentially a home team. That was Missouri playing in St. Louis against Miami. They lost. In the round of 32, Florida played about two hours from their campus. They lost to Iowa. "Home teams" are essentially 0-2 for the tournament. Houston now gets a home game against Illinois as this game takes place in the Toyota Center in Houston. This time, even on a neutral court, I think the Cougars have a better chance to win. Defensively they are better than Illinois. On offense, if they can limit the points in the paint, I think they win this one. Give me Houston -3.5. 

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