Two NBA Bets For The First Day After A Brutal All-Star Break

A special OutKick investigation has uncovered that the NBA returns from its All-Star break in full Thursday. Judging by the All-Star weekend TV ratings, I'm sure none of you knew the NBA was returning. I say "in full" because the Charlotte Hornets met the Lakers in a makeup game Wednesday after their original meeting was canceled due to the Los Angeles wildfires.  

LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast's NBA 2nd-Half Temperature Check & Thursday Best Bets Ft. David Troy

Nevertheless, I'm pumped the Association is back. It gives me something else to gamble on, and I need to make the money I lost during the first half of the season. That said, let's try to turn this thing around with a couple of looks in Thursday's nine-game slate. 

NBA Betting Card: February 20

• Memphis Grizzlies -2 (-110) at Indiana Pacers via FanDuel, risking 1.1 units (u).
• Atlanta Hawks moneyline (+105) vs. Orlando Magic via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.1u.

Grizzlies (-2) at Pacers, 7 p.m. ET

Memphis (36-18) is second in the Western Conference standings despite Ja Morant missing 22 games. When Ja plays, the Grizzlies are stacked. They have size, continuity, depth, and 3-point shooting. Memphis is fourth in net rating, sixth in offensive rating, and seventh in defensive rating after the first half of the season. 

Also, the Grizzlies have a strength-on-weakness edge over the Pacers (30-23) on the glass. Memphis leads the Association in putback points per miss, while Indiana is 21st in outback points per miss allowed, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). 

Memphis Grizzlies All-Star Ja Morant goes to the rack on Indiana Pacers C Myles Turner at the FedExForum. (Photo credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images)

Furthermore, the Pacers like to get out in transition, but that plays into the Grizzlies' hands. They lead the NBA in fastbreak offensive efficiency, per CTG. Memphis's transition offense is more dynamic this season because it shoots more 3-pointers and the transition three is probably the best look in basketball nowadays. 

Lastly, the Grizzlies are profitable in this short-favorite (-2.5) to short-underdog (+2.5) odds range, and Indy should be getting at least +4 here, anyway. Memphis is 9-3 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in that price corridor. 

Prediction: Memphis 129, Indiana 119

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Magic at Hawks (+105), 7:30 p.m. ET

Until PG Jalen Suggs returns from injury, Orlando (27-29) doesn't have a true point guard. Magic PG Cole Anthony, Suggs' backup, sucks and doesn't create looks for teammates. Anthony is averaging 9.5 points on 32.5% 3-point shooting and 2.7 assists per game. Orlando has the worst effective field goal shooting rate in the NBA, which factors in 2-and 3-point shooting. 

The market is low on Atlanta (26-29) after trading SF DeAndre Hunter and PG Dejounte Murray at the trade deadline. But, the Hawks got solid role players who do different things in return, such as SF Georges Niang (shooting 40.4% from behind the arc), combo guard Caris LeVert (a microwave scorer off the bench), and wing Terance Mann (a good two-way player). 

Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero posts up Atlanta Hawks big Mouhamed Gueye at Kia Center in Florida. (Photo Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images)

Moreover, Atlanta was 9-1 ATS in their 10 games heading into the All-Star break. This includes a 112-106 win vs. the Magic on the road February 10 even though Orlando forward Paolo Banchero and SG Franz Wagner combined for 68 points. The Hawks won three of the "four factors" in that game. 

Finally, more than 80% of the cash is on the Magic's moneyline at the time of writing, according to Pregame.com. Regardless of the one-way betting action headed toward Orlando, the line hasn't budged. Granted, I don't bow at the altar of betting splits, but this suggests that the oddsmakers are taking sharp money on the Hawks. 

Prediction: Atlanta 114, Orlando 105

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.