Two Looks For Packers And Cowboys

Packers vs. Cowboys, 4:30 ET

Sometimes a game comes along and you just feel like you have the right answer as soon as you see it. That's how I feel about this game and hopefully I can articulate well why I feel that way. Football isn't always an easy sport to bet on, but in this case, I think we have a clear play. Today, I think there is an easy play on the game between the Packers and Cowboys.

The Packers snuck into the playoffs. At first, they were in control of their destiny. Poor play led them to need a win against their division whipping boy (sorry Chicago fans, you can't call it a rivalry when you get your ass kicked every time), the Bears. In that game the defense was solid and the offense did it's part to make sure they found their way into the playoffs. It is nice that they made it, I suppose, but they made it really difficult on themselves as well. After beating the Kansas City Chiefs in Green Bay, they lost to the Giants (embarrassing) and the Buccaneers (bad loss because they were in Green Bay). That put their record at 6-8 and made it look like the playoffs weren't happening. To their credit they beat the Panthers (in a close game) and the Vikings with ease. Then they finished the job against the Bears. Their offense has looked pretty solid, and they put up 33 points two weeks in a row on the road.

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - DECEMBER 31: Jordan Love #10 of the Green Bay Packers throws a pass during the second quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

All of that doesn't matter because the Cowboys at home are a force to be reckoned with. On the season Dallas is 8-0 at home. Their margin of victory on average is 21.5. They've outscored opponents by 172 points on their home field. That's pure dominance. Of all their games on their home field they have two that wouldn't have covered the spread. Dak Prescott has played very well this season and even against a tough Packers defense, I think he can deal with them on his home field. He has shown that in Dallas he is a Hall of Famer, and away from Dallas, he might beat out a Steelers starter. 172 point advantage does speak to the offensive dominance, but it also has to provide some credit to the defense. On defense, the team has continuously shut down their opponent. The only ones with success have been the Lions and Seahawks, and even the Lions only scored 19 points.

This game really shouldn't be close. I'll put a unit on the Cowboys to cover the -7 (buying a half point spread - though, you really shouldn't need it). But, I'm going to put slightly more on the first play that stood out. The Packers team total under 20.5. I've had a very bad run on these team totals (for full disclosure, I even took the Raiders under when they scored 63 points), but this one feels right. Back the under and the side.

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