A Trio Of College Basketball Bets To Fade (Or Follow) Tuesday

If you told me before the start of basketball season I'd be giving out college hoops bets before March Madness, my response would be "Sh*t, the NBA must be going bad". That's exactly what's happening Tuesday. Between injuries, load management, and the trade deadline, I'd rather focus on college basketball than the NBA. 

It doesn't hurt that I'm hitting 63% of my college basketball bets given out via X and OutKick this year. Hopefully, I didn't jinx myself. Whenever I mention a hot streak in one of my articles, I lose money. Hence, perhaps it's a good idea to fade me Tuesday. Either way, here are a few looks to consider. 

College Hoops Betting Card: February 4

• Kentucky Wildcats +4.5 (-110) at Ole Miss Rebels via DraftKings, risking 1.1 units (u).
• UCLA Bruins -2 (-110) vs. Michigan State Spartans via DraftKings, risking 1.1u.
• BYU Cougars -128 moneyline vs. Arizona Wildcats via FanDuel, risking 1.28u.

#14 Kentucky (+4.5) at #25 Ole Miss, 7 p.m. ET

The Wildcats (15-6, 4-4 SEC) are missing their leader in usage, PG Lamont Butler, which is why the Rebels (16-6, 5-4 SEC) have gone from a -3 favorite on the opener to the current spread. Yet, I trust the college hoops gurus and the betting market that made Kentucky +3 originally. Butler's injury was "baked into their numbers" because he's missed the last two games. 

The Wildcats beat #4 Tennessee 78-73 on the road and lost 89-79 to Arkansas at home in the John Calipari Revenge Game without Butler. He missed back-to-back (B2B) games vs. #11 Gonzaga and Colgate. Kentucky beat 'Zaga 90-89 in overtime on a neutral floor and Colgate 78-67 at home. 

Kentucky Wildcats C Amari Williams stuffs it against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. (Photo credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images)

More importantly, UK's average height is over two inches taller than Ole Miss, per Ken Pom, and Kentucky has a much better shot profile. According to Bart Torvik, the Wildcats have higher dunk, "close 2-pointers", 3-point-attempt rates on both ends of the floor. They are fourth in experience, per Ken Pom, so I'm confident UK gets good looks without their starting point guard. 

Prediction: Rebels 79, Wildcats 78

• My buy-price is "Kentucky +3.5".

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#9 Michigan State at UCLA (-2), 10 p.m. ET

The Bruins (16-6, 7-4 Big Ten) enter on a five-game winning streak after losing four straight to begin 2025. The Spartans (18-3, 9-1 Big Ten) had their 13-game winning streak snapped in a 70-64 loss at USC in the first game of their West Coast B2B. That said, I want to fade these Midwestern schools flying to California to face former Pac-12 teams. 

Furthermore, Michigan State has two starting freshmen guards who have to face UCLA's aggressive defense. According to Ken Pom, the Bruins are second in defensive turnover rate (TOV%) in conference play and the Spartans are 13th in offensive TOV% out of 18 Big Ten programs. 

UCLA Bruins head coach Mick Cronin coaching up guards Lazar Stefanovic and Eric Dailey Jr. vs. the USC Trojans at the Galen Center in Los Angeles. (Photo credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images)

Lastly, an old-school college sports handicapping angle is fading ranked teams against non-ranked teams in conference play. Especially when the non-ranked school is the favorite over the #9 in the country. This is the perfect game to use that angle since UCLA's Mick Cronin is one of the most underrated coaches in college hoops. 

Prediction: Bruins 74, Spartans 68

• My buy-price is "UCLA -4".

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#20 Arizona at BYU (-128), 11 p.m. ET 

I've said this before, but I'm not a big college basketball fan. However, a lot of my homies are, including fellow OutKick writer and gambler Dan Zaksheske, who does a weekly self-titled college basketball column. "Arizona PG Caleb Love is OVERRATED" is one of Dan Z's most passionate college hoop takes since I started working with him in August 2022. 

That got burned in my brain after the Wildcats lost to Clemson in the Sweet 16 last year and Love went 0-for-9 from behind the arc and committed three turnovers to just one assist. Fast-forward to this game, Love faces freshman Cougars PG Egor Demin, a five-star recruit from Russia. 

Since Love and Demin lead their respective teams in usage rate, Love is overrated and Demin should be a top-10 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, I love BYU Tuesday. Demin's NBA comp is Luka Dončić, one of the best players in the world. Like Luka, Egor is an unconventional 6-foot-9 ball-handler. Unlike Luka, Egor is skinny.  

Plus, the "fade a ranked team with a non-ranked team in conference play" angle above works here. Finally, the Cougars are 38th nationally in 3-point shooting percentage and 21st in 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr), and Arizona is 301st in defensive 3PAr, per Ken Pom. I.e. BYU will bury Arizona with 3-pointers. 

Prediction: Cougars 84, Wildcats 74

• My buy-price is "BYU -4.5"

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my college basketball 2025 betting record via X all season.