Trend Gives Us A Clear Play In This Matchup For The West 7th Seed

Trail Blazers vs. Suns, 10:00 ET

There are a lot of advantages that teams see when you start getting into the playoffs. We talk about home-court or home-field advantage in just about every sport, almost every day. However, in the playoffs, when the players are going full effort, and the fans are at their loudest, home court does matter. Another advantage both of these teams have is they each only need to win one game to make the playoffs. Either the Trail Blazers or the Suns will punch their ticket to the postseason tonight, but the other won't be dead just yet.

The Trail Blazers are my favorite story this season. They had their head coach removed after something like 10 games because he was connected to gambling on basketball. They have had injuries and issues just like other teams, but that distraction didn't seem to bother them at all. For the record, I thought Chauncey Billups was a decent coach, but nothing special. The real impact of this team seems to be that Jrue Holliday brought much needed leadership and defense to the team. It also helped that Deni Avdija took a massive leap forward this season getting 24.2 points per game and 6.7 assists for the club. Portland has always had pieces that make for a decent roster, but this season they seemed to have put it together a bit better than before. 

CHICAGO, IL - APRIL 4: Deni Avdija #8 of the Portland Trail Blazers drives to the basket during the game against the Chicago Bulls on April 4, 2025 at United Center in Chicago, Illinois. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2025 NBAE (Photo by Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images)

The Suns have been another interesting story. For the past few years, the team has said "Let's try and get a bunch of veterans that are big names and see if they can work together." They've had Chris Paul, Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and a mix of other guys and it hasn't worked out. This year, the Suns traded away Durant (he wanted to go), and they took back Dillon Brooks, a guy who has been a villain most of his career. Brooks and Devin Booker have found a bond and it has translated on the court. There was a great piece on it from the Athletic if you haven't checked it out. It also helps that the role players know their actual role instead of just watching Durant and Booker take shots. And, to be clear, that really isn't a shot at Booker or Durant - they should be shooting, but now that Booker is the leader again, the rest of the team can stay in a better rhythm.

A date with San Antonio awaits the winner of this one, so it isn't exactly a prize to win this game. I like Phoenix and have been surprised at their success to this point this year. I thought Portland would improve, but even this finish is a bit higher than I thought (I did have them in the Play-In Game). The road team won all three games in this series this year, with the Suns winning two of three. Portland has been rough on the road, going 18-23 for the season, and they have lost games on average by 4.1 points. They haven't been overly reliable as a road dog either at 19-22 ATS. However, that's not really enough to say they shouldn't be taken. I do think Portland has a better team when fully healthy. Booker and the Suns own one of the worst home court advantage losses in playoff history. The better look is under 218.5. Both  teams are going to play at a slower pace to try and figure out the offense. Plus, at home, the Suns are 14-27 to the under, and Portland is 17-24 to the under on the road. Finally, the one game in Phoenix didn't even hit 200 points this season. Give me the under.

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