Total Is Too Low For Aces And Valkyries

Aces vs. Valkyries, 10:00 ET

I haven't had a WNBA look in a little while, and with just one game on the slate today, I was able to spend a little more time on it. I found a nice angle for the game and think we should get a win. This has been a solid season overall in the WNBA, but I think there are still more units for the taking tonight. Also, before we get into the game, I think betting on the Lynx to win the championship is the right bet. Thanks to Collier's injury, you're getting a decent value at almost 2:1. Now, let's get into the game between the Aces and the Valkyries.

The Aces have won two of the past three championships. Last year, they lost in the playoffs to the eventual champion, Liberty. Unfortunately for the Aces, the problem is that they have taken another step back this year. You have to wonder if the championship window is closed. Despite having one of the best players in the game in A'ja Wilson, the team is struggling to a 15-14 record. Jackie Young is giving help to the squad, but you have to wonder if the team made a mistake by trading away Kelsey Plum. I look at the roster and am not quite sure what the team is missing overall. Looking at the statistics, clearly, the team is struggling to manage on defense. Wilson is a known great defender and has been the Defensive Player of the Year a few times, but the team is allowing 83.1 points per game.

COLUMBIA, SC - MAY 11:  A'ja Wilson #22 of the Las Vegas Aces looks on during the game against the Puerto Rico National Team during the WNBA Preseason Game on May 11, 2024 at Colonial Life Arena in Columbia, South Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Travis Bell/NBAE via Getty Images)

The Valkyries are in their inaugural season, and they are putting together a respectable campaign. It is possible they have one of the best home-court advantages in all of basketball. Golden State has actually sold out their home games and is one of only a few teams in the league to accomplish that feat. For the season, the team is 8-4 for the year. Overall, the Valkyries have had a lot of balance on the season - they have an even mark for their wins, they are scoring 78.1 points per game, and allowing 78.5 points per game to opponents. Outside of their last game, also against the Aces, they have allowed few points. Over the last five games, they allowed 95 or more points in their two losses, and they have allowed 75 or fewer in the past three wins. Even the team scoring has been pretty balanced, with four players at 10 points per game or more. Another handful are averaging almost eight points per game for them as well. That can make defenses struggle when there is movement of the ball and multiple players are involved.  

This is another game that seems like the line is a bit too low. Overall, this is the fourth game between the two teams. The home team has won each game, but I think the Aces pull this out. I wouldn't be surprised to see them cover the game either. The line is moving toward the Valkyries, and the total is going to the under, so I'm a bit concerned about playing the Aces. The Valkyrie have done a good job against Wilson this season, but all three games would've gone over today's total. I think it goes over again. Back the over. 

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