Total Too High in Padres vs. Diamondbacks

Padres vs. Diamondbacks, 4:10 ET

As the Padres march towards the playoffs the biggest question for them is who they will face. I can’t imagine they want to face anyone in particular, but I’d feel like the Wild Card Three is what they’d want ideally. That way they can face the Mets instead of the Dodgers. That would be an interesting series due to travel.

Tonight, though, they need to take care of business with Yu Darvish on the mound. There have been some scary starts from Darvish on the year, but he has calmed down quite a bit as well. September has been kind to him as he has gone 21 innings and only allowed three earned runs. Basically, he has been the big game pitcher the Padres needed when they needed him. He has been hit a bit harder on the road, but that split isn’t nearly as drastic as it was earlier in the campaign. Against the Diamondbacks he has definitely had the edge as well. He has four starts against them, completing 26 innings and allowing just seven earned runs.

The Diamondbacks seem to just keep finding arms. Outside of Madison Bumgarner, the team has leveraged their rotation to a surprisingly successful year. If they had more hitting, they might be competing for the wild card spot, but it is too little, too late. Ryne Nelson is taking the ball and while he is listed as a relief pitcher by some outlets, he has two starts under his belt and hasn’t allowed an earned run yet. The first game was a seven inning gem against the same Padres and the second was a six inning start against the Dodgers. 13 innings total, just six hits allowed and 13 strikeouts. This might be a real talent here.

This is a situation where you can play the known entity in Darvish and play the Padres at -135, or take a risk on Nelson at +115. Personally, I think the books are giving Nelson too much respect. I think the Padres win this game, but the nine runs for a total seems way too high to me. I think this game should be closer to a 7.5 line. Darvish likely allows a couple runs and Nelson probably allows three. I’m taking the under 9 at -110. (I got this yesterday, it has now dropped to 8.5 at -120, I still like this play and I'll double down with you on it, but will only count as one play for my record).

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024