Total Is Too High Even With Shaky Starters

Brewers vs. Reds, 7:10 ET

No harm done yesterday. I ended up going 1-1 for the day, and since the second play was for plus money, I was able to escape with no change in the betting balance. While that is not what I'm looking for, I'm always looking for increases, I will never be disappointed in a break-even day. I actually like the run line more often than moneylines because games don't end by one run as often as you think. Even look at yesterday - 15 games happened, and only four of those games were one-run games. Let's see if we can get that option here in a game between the Brewers and the Reds.

The Brewers haven't had a great season to this point, but they did put together a very nice second-half of May. At the beginning of the month, the team was 16-15. They only increased their record by two games over the month, but as of today, they are 32-28. Currently, they might be the hottest team in baseball, having won seven straight games. It wasn't like they've beaten only the Rockies in the past few games; they played tough competition. They swept the Red Sox and the Phillies - the Red Sox are a good .500 team, and the Phillies are one of the best NL teams. Tonight, Aaron Civale takes the hill, looking to extend this to an eight-game winning streak. Civale is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP for the season. He has only made three starts for the season, going 12 total innings and allowing eight earned runs. He has improved in each of his starts, and while he won't ever be the Ace of a staff, he can have spurts of greatness. He has held Reds hitters to a .208 batting average in 24 at-bats. 

May 27, 2025; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Aaron Civale (32) delivers a pitch against the Boston Red Sox in the first inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

The Reds are not much better than the Brewers have been this season. They currently are 29-31 for the season, but they are at least even at home this season. The truth is that this seems like the right mark for the team. I don't really expect them to be that much better than that for the entire season. They have some good pieces, but I don't think they really have enough to be a true contender in the Wild Card. They just lost two of three games to the Cubs and are just 4-7 over their past 11 games. Brady Singer takes the hill for the Reds tonight. He is 6-3 with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Singer hasn't been great for the Reds, but he has been better at home than he has on the road. At home, he has a 3.29 ERA in five starts, it is 2.5 runs higher on the road. After a couple of bad starts to begin May, he finished the month with three starts totaling 17 innings and allowing seven earned runs. The Brewers have gotten 11 hits in 45 at-bats against Singer. 

This is one of those games that could kind of go either way. I like the starting pitching for both teams, but they also have a chance to allow a ton of runs. The Brewers are one of the hottest teams in baseball and they face a team that is a bit inconsistent. I'm not sure I can get there with either of the teams, though. Instead of taking a side (lean Brewers) I will play the under for the game. I see a 9.5 out there and just think that is too many. 

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