Total Take In Braves Vs Marlins

Braves vs. Marlins, 7:10 ET

Some matchups, even early in the season as teams look to figure things out, are complete mismatches. I get that it is early and teams can make complete turnarounds. Some teams will look great now but fade late in the year, and some teams are struggling to figure things out but will make a playoff push later. We try to isolate the teams in certain situations – slumps and hot streaks – and right now with the benefit of so few games it is even easier to see the disparity between teams. Today we have a clear mismatch no matter the time of the year as the Braves take on the Marlins. 

I am genuinely wondering what will happen with the Braves this season. Last year was an absolutely astounding year for them with their success at the dish. Don’t get me wrong, the pitching was very good as well, but the hitting was ridiculously good. They had seven hitters with 20 or more homers, and another three with at least 11. They had four guys with 100+ RBIs, and another with 97. We are early in the season, but three guys already have 10 or more RBIs and five players have two or more home runs. That’s a good way to follow up last season. One guy they would like to get back on track is Max Fried. He is listed as today’s starter, but despite his pedigree, he is off to a terrible start. He has allowed 10 earned runs in just five innings. 10 earned runs on 12 hits and four walks is a lot of reason to be concerned. Pitching against the Marlins should give him a chance to get back on track. Josh Bell and Jesus Sanchez have been good against him and are 11-for-24 while the rest of the Marlins are 4-for-26 against him. 

Feb 25, 2024; Jupiter, Florida, USA; Miami Marlins center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2) singles against the Washington Nationals in the second inning at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports

This is a very ugly start for the Marlins this season. As a team, they are hitting just .204 and have only scored 47 runs in 13 games. In their two wins, they have scored 15 runs, in their losses (11 games) they have scored 32. They aren’t drawing many walks, they clearly aren’t hitting, and their slugging percentage is very low. Today, they send out Trevor Rogers to the mound. Because it is early in the season, his numbers look worse than they really are. He has allowed six earned runs in 10 innings. His walks are a bit of a concern as he has already allowed seven in his two games. Over his career, Braves hitters have had quite a bit of success against him with 25 hits in 93 at-bats. He’s allowed 14 RBIs to them, and only Matt Olson really seems to have difficulty hitting him. 

I do think it is reasonable to expect Max Fried to rebound and become the pitcher he has been in the past. I don’t know that I can back him here though. I certainly recognize that the Marlins are a bad team and could struggle offensively. I think the Braves won’t and I think their team total might be a good look. However, I think with Fried probably expected to allow some runs still, I’ll play the game to go over the total.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024