Total Take For Big 10's Best Squads Facing Off

Purdue vs. Illinois, 7:00 ET

It was another average day for me on the hardwood with college hoops. I only went 1-1 on the day, but the win came in an ACC battle as Duke took down North Carolina State. I expected Duke to take care of business, and they were able to give us a sweat-free victory, winning by 15 points. This easily covered the -6.5 spread. Tonight, we get a game between two ranked opponents, but this time it comes in a battle within the Big 10. I am looking forward to this matchup between Purdue and Illinois and think we can take a unit from the books in it. 

Purdue has been ranked all season, and I think the lowest they've been ranked was fifth in the nation. You have to assume they will get a #1 seed for the NCAA tournament. They've already taken a share of the Big 10 regular season championship and next up will be the Big 10 tournament. But, before we get to that point, they need to beat the Fighting Illini on the road tonight. This season sees them with a 26-3 record and 15-3 within the conference. The three losses all came on the road. One game was against Northwestern in overtime, one was against Nebraska where they lost by 16, and the most recent loss was at Ohio State. In that one, they lost by four in a somewhat embarrassing performance. The team is, of course, led by Zach Edey. The big man continues to pour in the buckets and make teams have to completely adjust or scheme for him. As a walking double-double, the guy is one of the more dominant forces in college basketball. How successful Purdue will be this season remains to be seen. They've only had to face five ranked teams this season (this will be the sixth), so this will be a nice test before the end of the year. Outside of Purdue, three guards are supporting him with scoring. They will need to find a way to shoot effectively from outside if they plan to win this game. 

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 12: Zach Edey #15 of the Purdue Boilermakers reacts against the Penn State Nittany Lions during the Big Ten Basketball Tournament Championship game at United Center on March 12, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Illinois is another school that has been ranked the majority of the season. I believe they came into the year unranked, and they currently sit at ninth in the nation. They have a 22-7 record this season and are 13-5 within the conference. The losses this season have come at the hands of Marquette, Tennessee, Purdue, Maryland, Northwestern, Michigan State, and Penn State. The only home loss they've had was to Marquette. Everything else at home has been a fairly comfortable win. Looking at the rest of the road losses, they've been competitive in the majority of games. I'm a bit surprised by these two most recent losses (Michigan State and Penn State). Road losses are not unexpected for good teams, but Illinois is one of the better teams and losing to those squads give me a bit of pause on picking them to go deep in the tournament. Illinois has the personnel to battle Edey today. The question will be if they can guard the back court of Purdue. At the same time, I think that Purdue will struggle to guard Illinois in the game. In the first game, the Illini were able to hold Edey to just 10 points, getting him in foul trouble. Illinois probably was the better team, but they were outrebounded by 15 in that game and fell by five points. 

How can Illinois get over the hump in this game? First off, they need to make sure they rebound better than they did in the first game. Even with the rebound difference, Illinois shot one more field goal, and four fewer free throws. They both shot 19 threes. The turnover battle wasn't anything significant, and the assists were pretty much equal. For this game, I think Illinois probably wins, but my concern is that they played as well as they could against Purdue the first time and still lost. I'm going to take the over in this game instead. I think both squads find some offensive edges and put up enough to get us over the 163.5. 

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