Total Play As Orioles And Blue Jays Open Series

Orioles vs. Blue Jays, 7:07 ET

Sunday wasn't a bad day, we were able to take a very slight bit of profit in the two games that I played. One of the games that I took a chance on was between the Tigers and the Red Sox. I was expecting the Red Sox to beat the Tigers with ease. They were winning for the first five innings, but ultimately fell apart and lost the full game. I still think this wasn't a bad read on the game, but this was more of a bad outcome. On a positive note, I feel like I might be coming out of that week-long slump I had. Hopefully, we completely turn it around as the Orioles vs. Blue Jays. 

Baltimore is 17-games above .500 and is in just second place within the division. That has to be a bit frustrating to be this successful and sitting in second place. They take the field as the road team in today's game and have been great in this situation this season with a 16-8 record. The two squads have faced off once already this season with one game postponed and the other two that were played ending with a win for each club. As you'd expect the team is doing a lot of good things, sporting a .249 batting average and among the league leaders in runs scored for the season. They are mashing the ball more than I expected them to with 84 for the season. Gunnar Henderson has 19 of them alone, so maybe it shouldn't be that much of a surprise. The only hitting category that the Orioles aren't performing well in right now is the On-Base Percentage. Tonight that offense looks to back starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez. This season has been pretty good for Rodriguez so far as he hosts a 3.53 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. This is his 10th start of the season and he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his nine completed games. In his other two, he allowed seven earned runs and four earned runs. Rodriguez has struggled a bit on the road with a 5.48 ERA, but half of the runs have come from one start. Against Rodriguez, the Blue Jays are 11-for-43 overall. 

SARASOTA, FLORIDA - MARCH 17: Adley Rutschman #76 of the Baltimore Orioles poses for a portrait during Photo Day at Ed Smith Stadium on March 17, 2022 in Sarasota, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)

If we talk about expectations, I have to believe the majority of baseball analysts would say the Blue Jays are underperforming this season. The team comes into this game two games under .500, but has a winning record at home (just one game over, but still winning nonetheless). The team struggled to start the season with a bunch of road games, and then the offense wasn't that sharp. Now they are playing a bit better, but the pitching isn't quite as good as it was. None of their stats are alarmingly bad aside from maybe the opponent batting average, which is at .253. Again, looking at the team stats without knowing who they are you'd assume they probably are a .500 club. However, for the amount of talent on the roster, you have to think they aren't playing well. Kevin Gausman take the ball for the Blue Jays. He struggled a bit to start the season, but has put together three consecutive good outings. All three are quality starts with him finishing six innings and allowing just one earned run in each of his past two games. He has been hit rather hard at home this season with a 6.20 ERA and a 2.43 road ERA. Another issue for today could be that Gausman has been hit rather well by the Orioles hitters. Over his career, Baltimore hitters are 32-for-116, but only seven of those hits have gone for extra bases. 

The Orioles will likely win this game. I do think Gausman can turn in a good outing, and will be the better starter in this game. I'd be a bit surprised if he doesn't produce a quality start. Rodriguez is pitching fairly well overall, but I think we should see some runs allowed from him. This is a bit of a coinflip, but I do think the Orioles are going to win the game and maybe the Blue Jays win the first five innings - that bet is available at +800 if you want to take a shot on it. My official play will be to take the over 7.5. Gausman has been hit hard in the past, Rodriguez struggles on the road, I think there are more chances for an over than an under in this game.