Total Is Low For A Reason

Red Sox vs. Mariners, 4:10 ET

Wasn't the best day that I've ever had in my betting career. I had a lot of good leans, but I couldn't get a win, so a lean does nothing for us. Now instead of looking to continue winning ways, I'm looking for a bounce back day. That's never what I want to do, but the good thing about baseball is that it is played every day so we get to have an opportunity to make an impact with betting each day. Today's opportunity falls in a matchup that is between the Red Sox and the Mariners. 

The Red Sox have a bit of a new look. It is never a good day when you trade away one of the best players on your team, but there is something that can be said about removing someone who hasn't been a team player. The issue with Rafael Devers was never about his productivity. When he was traded away, he was still one of the top hitters on the team. The issue was always about his willingness to do things for the organization. Maybe he just didn't like Boston, or didn't like the Red Sox. I really have no idea. That chapter is over now, though. Just think, the Red Sox in the past few years have lost Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and now Devers. One thing they have done is add to their pitching staff, including today's starter Garrett Crochet. Crochet is 6-4 with a 2.24 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He has made 15 starts already this season, and has allowed two or fewer runs in 13 of them. Nine of the starts have been quality starts. Of his two starts where he allowed more than two earned runs, one of them was against the Mariners. Overall, the Mariners are 11-for-47 against Crochet.

Apr 13, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA;  Boston Red Sox pitcher Garrett Crochet (35) high fives teammates after he pitched against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Seattle doesn't have a new look, but I do have some concerns that this team will need to find a new identity before the trade deadline. They likely won't be major buyers or sellers at the deadline. At the moment, they are two games over .500. Last year, they were fighting for a playoff spot and had one of the best rotations in baseball. This season, the team is struggling to get really anything sustainable going. Their rotation is still solid for the most part - they have a 3.88 ERA collectively, but George Kirby has taken a step back, and Logan Gilbert just returned from injury after missing all of May. After a really rough start to the month, where they lost eight of their first 10 games, they have won four of their past five. Today, they are sending Luis Castillo to the hill. Castillo is 4-4 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. Castillo has a very strong home ERA with a 2.35 mark. Overall, the Red Sox are hitting .129 against him in 31 at-bats. He didn't face the Red Sox when the teams met earlier in the year.

This has one of the lowest posted totals for the day. To be honest, I could see this game ending 1-0. The two teams are both playing fairly well at the moment, having won four of their past five. They are also both looking to steal the series from the opponent. Each team has thrown a shutout in the series. I'm going to be risky here and take the under 3.5 runs through five innings. There is very little room for error here, but I think this is the right look in this game. 

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