This Total Just Is Too Much For The Squads To Reach Tonight

Louisville vs. North Carolina, 7:00 ET

From a betting perspective, it wasn't the best College Basketball weekend that I've ever had. From a watching and enjoyment perspective, this weekend doesn't get much better. The top four teams all faced each other, and the games did not disappoint. We will certainly see some shakeup at the top, but those four teams, Duke, Michigan, Arizona, and Houston, probably all deserve to be part of the top five teams in the nation. Louisville vs. North Carolina is not a top five matchup, but it should be a great game nonetheless.

Louisville has put together a nice campaign, but they are probably not quite as elite as the top level of competition. For the season, they are 20-7 and 9-5 in ACC play. I am interested to see where they end up because I feel like with a good ACC Tournament run, they could be as high as a four-seed. If they play poorly, I think they could end up being stuck somewhere six to eight in the ranks. Their seven losses this season have been against Arkansas, Tennessee, Stanford, Duke (twice), Virginia, and SMU. The Cardinals tend to struggle, it appears, against two things: ranked teams and on the road. That's not all that shocking, considering it is fairly normal for most College Basketball teams. They have only beaten Kentucky and Indiana for ranked teams. They have only won against Cal, Pittsburgh, and Wake Forest on the road. 

Nov 6, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA;  Louisville Cardinals guard Ryan Conwell (3) shoots against Jackson State Tigers forward Jayme Mitchell Jr. (3) during the second half at KFC Yum! Center. Louisville defeated Jackson State 106-70. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

I've brought up that North Carolina doesn't seem to be attracting the same high-level talent that they used to bring into the program, but they did get a stud this year in Caleb Wilson. The problem is that Wilson has been injured and missed the past four games. He is listed as out for this game, but there are rumors he could come back in any of the remaining three games. However, I wouldn't necessarily count on that. I'd expect they keep him out until the NCAA Tournament. In any case, without him the Tar Heels are just 2-2, losing to both Miami and North Carolina State (both road games), while beating Pittsburgh at home, and Syracuse on the road. Their other four losses this season are against Michigan State, SMU, Stanford, and Cal. Wilson was giving the Tar Heels almost 20 and 10, so that production has to come from somewhere. 

Looking at the line movement, it appears that the money is going to Louisville, which I can't really blame. Without Wilson, North Carolina is going to struggle to have a go-to guy. The problem is that this game has two spots that Louisville has really not shown to be trustworthy - against a ranked opponent and on the road. If Wilson is out, North Carolina also loses a bit of their advantage. Louisville is dominated by their guard play. Louisville like to get out and run, so the total is pretty high in this game, but the Tar Heels are going to rely on defense and slowing the game down to try and keep it close. I think the best look is to take under 162.5 here. Louisville might be the better team, but I really can't get behind them. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024