Total Is Too High In Game 3

Rangers vs. Diamondbacks, Game 3, 8:03 ET

At the start of the World Series, the books made it seem like this was going to be a sweep. They had the Texas Rangers being the heavy favorite, and the Arizona Diamondbacks were just happy to be involved in the fight. After two games, I'd argue the Diamondbacks have looked like the better team. However, the series is tied 1-1. Now we shift the series over from Texas to Arizona as the Rangers take on the Diamondbacks tonight.

The Rangers were kind of lucky to take Game 1. It was a back-and-forth battle in Game 1 where they jumped out to an early lead and Arizona was able to respond each time. The Diamondbacks entered the ninth inning and had a lead before Corey Seager hit a game-tying home run. Then the Rangers were able to win the game in extra innings on another home run from Adolis Garcia. If the Diamondbacks were to fold, that would have been the time. A sweep or a gentleman's sweep would've been a reasonable expectation after allowing two home runs to the opponent's two best players. Instead, the Diamondbacks came back the next day and were able to pounce on the Rangers early. They ran out to a lead and kept their foot on the gas, putting up nine runs. They were on the brink of a 2-0 lead, but coming home 1-1 is a decent enough result.

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 18: Max Scherzer #31 of the Texas Rangers reacts after giving up an RBI single to Mauricio Dubon #14 of the Houston Astros during the fourth inning in Game Three of the American League Championship Series at Globe Life Field on October 18, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Tonight, a pivotal Game 3, sees a pitching matchup between Max Scherzer and Brandon Pfaadt. You probably are very familiar with Scherzer, and his likely Hall of Fame career. But, Pfaadt is not a name that you're familiar with. However, if he continues to pitch the way he has, you'll at least know his name for years to come. He's a young guy, just 25 years old but doesn't seem to be fazed by the big moments and the playoffs. He's thrown a protected 16.2 innings and allowed just five earned runs. All five earned runs have come on the road. He's thrown 10 innings in Arizona and allowed just four hits, nothing else. His first start of this season was one of his worst, and guess who he faced? That's right, the Rangers. He allowed seven earned runs on four homers and nine hits. He seems like a different pitcher right now though. Scherzer has been in the World Series before and experience does matter, but something hasn't been quite right with him. He's allowed seven earned runs in just 6.2 innings. Maybe he rushed back from injury too quickly? Whatever the case is, Scherzer isn't as scary of a name as he was even a year ago. He did face the Diamondbacks when he was with the Mets earlier in the year. He allowed four earned runs on three home runs over six innings.

You can tell the market doesn't really trust Scherzer anymore. Seeing him at -110 and Pfaadt at -110 for this game is a bit of a rarity. There is some value on the Rangers, but how much of that is just the name recognition of Scherzer? The Rangers haven't lost a road game in the postseason either. I like the Diamondbacks to win the game, but I'm not playing it. I prefer the under in this game. Nine runs seems a bit high for this game. I am expecting a better performance from Scherzer, and Pfaadt has been solid at home. Nine is too high, so take the under.

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