Total Is A Bit Too High In This Ranked Matchup

Vanderbilt vs. Alabama, 3:30 ET

There aren't a ton of games on the schedule today between ranked teams. We do have a couple on the schedule, and there are a lot of ranked teams that are taking the field, just not against top-level competition. Just because teams have a number next to their team name doesn't mean they are going to have the best game to watch or anything, but they certainly get more attention. One of the games that is happening between two of the top-25 is this one between Vanderbilt and Alabama. 

Vanderbilt is significantly overperforming against expectations. How do I know? Because one of my friends' biggest plays of the season has already cashed on their win total. That's right, we are entering Week 6, and Vanderbilt at 5-0 already has gone over their 4.5 win total for the season. They have climbed onto the national stage, being noticed by the media and opponents simultaneously. I do have a bit of concern about just how good this team actually is. They started the season against Charleston Southern and coasted to a 45-3 win. They did have to travel to Virginia Tech and South Carolina for the next two games. They showcased a strong offensive output in both of them. Additionally, their defense held their own, limiting South Carolina to just seven points and Virginia Tech to 20. Their past two games have been against Georgia State and Utah State. Neither of those squads are at the level of even a decent Vanderbilt team. Still, this team could reasonably be expected to be at 3-2, but they are 5-0, answering the bell for each challenge. 

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - SEPTEMBER 20: Diego Pavia #2 and Jordan White #53 of the Vanderbilt Commodores celebrate a touchdown against the Georgia State Panthers in the first half at FirstBank Stadium on September 20, 2025 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Carly Mackler/Getty Images)

Alabama has had quite the season, and they cost me some money last week. I thought Georgia, at home, would be able to beat the Crimson Tide. It wasn't the case as the final 18 minutes of the game went scoreless and Alabama held onto a three-point victory. It was a bit interesting that neither team could really do much on the scoreboard after seemingly doing everything they wanted for three quarters. Alabama is 3-1 for the season, now with their only loss against a strong Florida State team. In that first game of the year, Alabama couldn't really get anything going offensively. That's where my concern comes in with this team: The offense seems to get stagnant at times. Do they have a next level that they can get to? Sure, they dropped 73 points against the University of Louisiana Monroe, but should we be that impressed with that win? Probably not. They also beat Wisconsin by 24, but I'm not sure that the Badgers are that good a team either. 

Alabama at home is usually a really good bet. Vanderbilt has been tested a little bit, but this is certainly their hardest matchup of the young season. I think that this game seems like Alabama could establish itself on defense, and their offense should get even better. I'm going to back the under here though as I feel like this total is a bit too high. I'm not convinced that Vanderbilt's offense is going to be quite as dynamic here and the defense should at least be capable of getting some stops. 

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