Regardless Of Who Wins, Blue Jays At Yankees Game 3 Should Be A 'Slugfest'
With hot bats and shaky starters, Game 3 of the 2025 ALDS in the Bronx looks primed for another Over between Toronto and New York
The New York Yankees' backs are against the wall as they try to prevent a Toronto Blue Jays (2-0) sweep in the best-of-five 2025 ALDS Tuesday. New York hopes that starting LHP Carlos Rodon (18-9, 3.09 ERA in the regular season) can stave off elimination. Toronto sends out 2020 AL Cy Young-winning RHP Shane Bieber (4-2 with a 3.57 ERA) to finish the job.
The Blue Jays raked the Yankees in Games 1-2 by a combined score of 23-8. Toronto slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is absolutely dominating the Pinstripes. Guerrero is 6-for-9 in this series with two home runs and six RBI. The only positive for the Yankees in this series is they haven't used their best relievers since the Blue Jays put these games away before the high-leverage innings.
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees Game 3 Betting Odds
It's square, but I'm taking the OVER 8 (-102), up to 8 (-120). Usually, you want to bet Unders in clinch games. Nonetheless, nine of the 15 Blue Jays-Yankees meetings in the regular season and playoffs have gone Over this number (one had exactly eight runs scored), including the first two games of this series, obviously.
Toronto has owned Rodon in their last five meetings. Over that span, Rodon has a 6.66 ERA vs. the Blue Jays and hasn't completed six innings. Meanwhile, Toronto's lineup is fourth in MLB in wRC+ and wOBA against left-handed pitching, according to FanGraphs. Guerrero in particular smacks Rodon around the ballpark.
Also, Bieber is living off his 2021 AL Cy Young campaign when, in reality, his stuff has lost a little nastiness. Per Statcast, Bieber's expected ERA, hard-hit rate, and chase rate are below league-average. Plus, the Yankees lead baseball in wRC+, wOBA, and hard-hit rate vs. right-handed pitching.
Ultimately, both teams have too much firepower for this to turn into a pitcher’s duel. Rodon’s Blue Jays woes and Bieber’s declining stuff point to another high-scoring game, especially with New York desperate to avoid a sweep.
Best Bet: OVER 8 in Blue Jays at Yankees
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