Titans Will Send Colts To The Glue Factory In Week 7
I'm fading the Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1) Sunday when they visit the Tennessee Titans (3-2) at Nissan Stadium for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff in Week 7.
Indianapolis's 34-27 victory at home vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars last weekend was flukey as hell and is the "fake sharp" play of the week.
Tennessee is coming off a bye and the Titans have performed tremendously on extra rest since coach Mike Vrabel was hired in 2018.
The Titans beat the Colts 21-14 in Week 4 as 3.5-point underdogs. Tennessee RB Derrick Henry balled — 147 all-purpose yards (114 rushing and 33 receiving yards) with 1 TD — while Indy RB Jonathan Taylor struggled — 43 all-purpose yards with 0 TD and 1 fumble lost.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
Fading the Colts
The fact Indianapolis is only a 2.5-point underdog in Tennessee is an overreaction to the Colts' winning back-to-back games entering Week 7.
Indy eked past a Jacksonville team last weekend that's had the No. 1 overall pick in the last two NFL drafts and a Denver Broncos in Week 6 who's broken.
Also, Colts QB Matt Ryan played his best game of 2022 last week by completing 42-of-58 passes for 389 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INT.
Indianapolis Colts QB Matt Ryan celebrates a TD against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Indianapolis converted 10-of-15 3rd-down attempts and still needed a go-ahead 32-yard TD pass from Ryan with 17 seconds remaining to win.
However, I'll take my chances that Ryan's Week 7 performance was more of an outlier and won't keep the chains moving as well against Tennessee's underrated defense.
Several sports betting podcasts pegged the Colts ATS as the sharp play for Week 7 in this bounce-back spot vs. the Titans. These two teams tend to split their season series over the last four seasons.
But, Tennessee will have more success on the ground Sunday and is a different team on extended rest.
Who is better than Mike Vrabel with extra time to prep?
The Titans are 8-0 with nine or more days in between games and a +18.8 margin of victory since Vrabel's 1st year on the job. This is consistent with Tennessee's identity who plays more of a throwback style of football.
Aside from Henry, Titans players aren't atop of statistical leaderboards typically yet Tennessee is the reigning 2-time AFC South champions. It's because Tennessee is a physical team that's well-coached and buttoned up situationally.
Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel stands during the national anthem against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
The extra rest gives the Titans time to heel and Vrabel time to prepare for an opponent he knows well. Tennessee's defense is 2nd in 3rd-down conversion rate and 8th in red zone scoring percentage allowed. The bottom line is I trust the Titans more in high-leverage situations.
Judging by the injury reports, Indianapolis needed Tennessee's bye week more than the Titans. Here's a look at who the Colts are missing for Week 7:
Colts DE Kwity Paye is one of their best pass rushers and LB Shaquille Leonard is the quarterback of their defense. These injuries are more important than Taylor's return.
Taylor is averaging just 3.6 yards per rush with 1 TD scored in four career games vs. the Titans. Furthermore, Tennessee's defense is 1st in rushing success rate and 8th in rushing expected points added per play allowed.
There are just too many edges in the Titans' favor and the market is always down on Tennessee.
BET: Titans -2.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -3
The Tennessee Titans' odds vs. the Indianapolis Colts in Week 7 from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, Oct. 22 at 2:30 p.m. ET.