The Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 (-110) are getting a whole bunch of love from the market, bringing the Washington Commanders -3.5 (-110) down from a 3-point opening favorite.
If you follow my stuff, you've already read this handicapping angle when I broke down the Iowa State-Iowa college football matchup. But, I'll say it again: Public 'dogs get slaughtered.
However, Washington's spread falling below the key number of 3 means it's time to fade the public. Run over to DraftKings Sportsbooks and BET the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS -2.5 (-110) while you can.
Everyone Is Betting Jacksonville
According to VSIN, two-thirds of the cash at DraftKings Sportsbooks is on the Jaguars -2.5 (-110). Furthermore, nearly three-fourths of the money in the consensus market is backing Jacksonville against the spread, per Pregame.com.
But, Washington -2.5 (-110) has become an auto-bet because what have the Jaguars done to get this much respect from the market? Jacksonville has picked No. 1 overall in back-to-back drafts and has four wins over the last two seasons.
I get that the Jaguars almost can't play worse than they have in recent years. And I agree Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence will play better in 2022. New Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson is better suited for the role than his predecessor, Urban Meyer.
However, there's no guarantee Jacksonville turns it around immediately.
Washington Is A Better Football Team
K.I.S.S. is an appropriate phrase here and it stands for "keep it simple stupid". The Commanders have better football players hence them winning 10 more games than the Jaguars from 2020-21.
For instance, Washington is much better in the trenches. Washington's offensive and defensive lines have better passing and running block rates than Jacksonville, according to ESPN.
Also, I'm buying Lawrence's low stock. But, if he played as well as Washington QB Carson Wentz did in his worst season, it'd be a step in the right direction for Lawrence.
Everyone thinks Wentz sucks and Lawrence was dragged down by Meyer last season. However, the Jaguars were just 1-3 after firing Meyer and Wentz has a career 44-40-1 record. Wentz has a legit No. 1 wide receiver in Terry McLaurin and Washington's defense has a lot more talent.
The bottom line is the market's love for the Jaguars is based on non-football stuff. Washington has a terrible owner, weird brand and maligned quarterback. Most expect the Jaguars to improve greatly year over year.
All that might be true. But, I'll fade the noise and BET the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS -2.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbooks.