Tigers Will Take Down Struggling Pirates

Tigers vs. Pirates, 6:40 ET

I put a play on these very same Tigers yesterday, and it was a winner - provided you just played the game and didn't do a "Must Start" bet. For those of you new to betting or who don't know, when you play baseball games, you can place wagers on games saying that certain starters must actually start the games. For example, Nathan Eovaldi was expected to start yesterday, but he didn't. If you just bet the game, the bet cashed. If you bet that Eovaldi must start in order for your wager to be true, then you would've had it voided, and your money returned. I always say for my recommendations, it is safer to play them based on starters as that is a large portion of my handicapping. Today we have Jack Flaherty going for the Tigers and Paul Skenes going for the Pirates, could you imagine betting on the Pirates thinking Skenes would start and it ends up being someone else?

The Tigers still have one of the best records in baseball, but they did just have a blip on the radar just before the All-Star Break and just after it. They had dropped six straight games before winning last night against the Rangers. It wasn't just the offense that was failing the Tigers, the pitching was a struggle as well. Since the All-Star Game, in just three games, they are 1-2, and have scored only three runs. They only allowed eight runs, and faced a pretty good pitching staff in those three games. Detroit's offense will likely find their way - the team is hitting .250 and has scored a ton of runs this season. The pitching has been good, and this team has its sights set on big things this year. Jack Flaherty is taking the hill for the Tigers tonight. Overall, he is 5-9 with a 4.65 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. The biggest concern for Flaherty is that he has struggled significantly on the road with a 6.08 ERA. He hasn't been terrible in every start, looking at a comparable team - the White Sox - Flaherty went six innings and allowed just one earned run. Overall, Pirates hitters are hitting .304 against the Pirates. 

Sep 22, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) pitches against the Cincinnati Reds in the first inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

The Pirates have one of the worst records in baseball. It hasn't just been a blip; this team has taken a step back from last season. Last year at the All-Star Break they were at least around .500. Since then they have fallen off a cliff. As of today, they are 22 games under and the longest winning streak they had this season was six games. That's respectable, and they were all wins at home, but they followed that with eight losses. They've now lost 11 of their past 12 games going back to before the break. With Skenes on the hill, they always at least have a chance to win. The White Sox just scored 27 runs against Pittsburgh in three games. For the year, Skenes is one of the best pitchers in the game. He is 4-8 with a 2.01 ERA (best in baseball), and a 0.93 WHIP. The problem is that the Pirates have decided he is only going to pitch five innings or something. I advise that you never bet an over on him until this oddity is lifted. He did face the Tigers earlier in the year and allowed two earned runs over six innings. 

It is really hard to back the Pirates in a game. Flaherty has been terrible on the road this season, but the Pirates aren't that good of a team. Skenes is unlikely to get very deep into the game. Neither offense looks great right now, and I don't expect the Tigers to break out against Skenes. I do think they win this game though. The Tigers are plus money here at +108. I'm going to take them as I think it is likely that Skenes does his thing then the Tigers get to the bullpen. 

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