Three Plays For Brewers And Royals

Brewers vs. Royals, 7:40 ET

I mentioned yesterday's results (1-0-1) in my other article today. The win from yesterday was a play in the Mariners and Twins game. The two teams combined for a total of four runs. I love the sweat-free play, and it was a relatively easy one as the under-8 runs were never really in jeopardy. Today looks like we might have another opportunity for a game that has too high of a total. Tonight we have a matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Kansas City Royals as they face off at Kauffman Stadium. 

The Brewers are cruising this season with a strong 20-14 record and have been solid on the road with a 13-7 mark. That means they will probably have a good portion of home games in the second half of the year as well. After this series that will put 23 of their 81 road games already completed. That's 25% of their road games done in just 22% of their games sets them up well for important games at home later this year. While it may be too soon to look at things like that, I think this also shows that this Brewers team is deep. In the past 12 months, they've lost their best starting pitcher, their best reliever (and closer), and their manager. They haven't missed a beat. The team is hitting rather well at .257, which I do expect to drop a bit as we get deeper into the season. With Christian Yelich and Christian Arroyo on the injured list, it could also hurt the offense - they are both scheduled back within the next couple of days. Their pitching staff has been solid with a 3.99 ERA, but not quite as sharp as they are hoping for longterm. Tonight, they are sending out Colin Rea to battle the Royals. Rea has a 2.67 ERA on the season and has a 1.22 WHIP. He has been strong in almost every start this season. The one exception was a start against the Yankees where he allowed five earned runs in six innings while giving up three home runs. In 27.2 innings outside of that game, he has allowed just five earned runs. His most recent start, he allowed just four hits over six innings while allowing no runs. The Royals are hitting .300 off of Rea, but they are just 6-for-20 against him. 

Apr 26, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Colin Rea (48) delivers a pitch against the New York Yankees in the sixth inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

The Royals are off to a fantastic start. Last year was a disaster and this team has turned everything around, propelling themselves to a 21-15 record for the season. The team has done a great job of finding ways to win despite not hitting all that well most of this season. As usual, they are led by Salvador Perez who has a .328 batting average with eight homers, and 30 RBIs for the season. All three of those numbers lead the team. The Royals as a team have a .237 batting average, but their On Base Percentage is just .305 for the year. Where they are really excelling right now is the pitching staff. On the year, the club has a 3.31 ERA even though their WHIP is 1.25 - not much lower than the Brewers who have almost .70 higher ERA. Tonight, they put Seth Lugo on the mound. He has been outstanding this season. He is 5-1 with a 1.60 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP. The ERA is third best in the league and his WHIP is 21st. He has six quality starts in his seven outings this season and his only start where he didn't complete at least six innings was against the Orioles where he allowed four earned runs over 5.1 innings. Lugo has been great against the Brewers in his career, holding them to just seven hits over 37 at-bats. Three of those hits were for extra-bases. 

I am a bit shocked to see that the total in this game is nine runs. I'm taking the under, and I'd be surprised to see if we get more than seven runs in this one. Under seven runs is +219 if you want to put a sprinkle on it or for some fun. I'm also taking the Royals to win this game. With Lugo on the hill, I'd be surprised if they lose this one. Finally, I'm taking the Brewers under 4.5 runs for their team total. This game is priced wrong. Maybe I'm reading it incorrectly, but I've built up a good bank roll to take some chances on this one. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024