Three NBA Best Bets For A 'Must-Win' Friday
I'm handicapping angry in the NBA Friday and I usually do my best gambling when I'm mad. The NBA In-Season Tournament semifinals crushed me Thursday and tore down all the good work I've done previously this week.
It's been like that for me this whole NBA season. I'll follow up winning days with losers. But, if I don't put together a winning night Friday, I might be shutting down the NBA gambling operation until after the Super Bowl.
Hopefully, it's a "get-right" night in my ...
NBA Friday Best Bets
Golden State Warriors (+3.5) at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 p.m. ET tip-off
The Warriors were terrible on the road last season but are one of the best road teams this season. Per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Golden State has the 2nd-best non-garbage time net rating in away games and 4th-best spread differential.
Also, the Warriors have the best defensive shot quality allowed, according to CTG. While the Thunder have given up the highest rate of "wide-open" 3-pointers in the NBA over their last six games. "Wide-open" is when the shooter has at least six feet of distance from the nearest defender.
Golden State Warriors SG Klay Thompson shoot a 3-pointer over Oklahoma City Thunder center Chet Holmgren at Chase Center in San Francisco. (John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, Golden State is shooting better from behind the arc on the road compared to at home. The Warriors' 3-point rate goes from 35.5% at home to 37.9% in away games.
Golden State has a strength-on-weakness edge over OKC on the glass. According to CTG, the Warriors are 8th in points per 100 misses and the Thunder are 25th in points allowed per 100 misses. Basically, Oklahoma City does a poor job grabbing defensive rebounds.
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The Thunder are 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in their 1st three meetings with the Warriors this season. But, those two OKC wins are misleading. The Warriors were missing Draymond Green for both losses and Steph Curry and Draymond for another.
My prediction: Warriors 121, Thunder 115
Chicago Bulls (-130) at San Antonio Spurs, 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off
San Antonio is on a 15-game losing skid and I see it getting to 16. Granted, Chicago is one of the worst road teams in the NBA and the Bulls are missing SG Zach LaVine. That said, I'd argue no LaVine is addition by subtraction.
LaVine has a -7.7 on/off net rating in non-garbage time, according to CTG, so Chicago plays better with LaVine off the floor. LaVine and Bulls wing DeMar DeRozan occupy the same space. LaVine's replacement, SG Alex Caruso, is one of the best role players in the Association.
Bulls wing DeMar DeRozan drives to the cup against the San Antonio Spurs at the United Center in Chicago. (Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
This is a rare game where the Bulls have a strength-on-weakness edge over their opponent. Chicago is 3rd in both offensive and defensive turnover rate (TOV%), per CTG. San Antonio is 27th in offensive TOV% and 19th defensively.
Lastly, more than 70% of the money in the consensus betting market is on the Spurs, per Pregame.com. San Antonio has become a public 'dog, and those tend to get slaughtered by sportsbooks.
My prediction: Bulls 116, Spurs 111
Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns (+2.5), 9 p.m. ET tip-off
Phoenix will be without All-Star Kevin Durant but Devin Booker can pick up the slack. Booker averaged 34.0 points in four games vs. the Kings last season and Sacramento has one of the worst defensive backcourts in the NBA.
In fact, the Kings are 27th in half-court defensive efficiency, according to CTG, and the Suns play the 2nd-highest volume of half-court offense. Phoenix is 2nd in offensive FT/FGA rate and Sacramento is 21st in defensive FT/FGA rate.
Phoenix Suns SG Devin Booker shoots a fadeaway over Kings wing Harrison Barnes at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Circling back on "picking up the slack for KD's absence", role players perform better at home. For instance, Phoenix shoots effective field goal shooting improves from 52.7% on the road to 56.4% at home.