'Three Best Bet Weave': Kansas-Arizona, Alabama-Tennessee, Gonzaga-Saint Mary's

Saturday's college basketball slate is a high-stakes preview of March Madness, featuring a heavyweight Big XII clash, an SEC rivalry, and a late-night West Coast showdown. My Three Best Bet Weave targets teams with superior rebounding and defensive discipline to help you navigate a crowded board.

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Kansas has the profile to grind Arizona, Tennessee is set up perfectly to punish Alabama’s "shoot threes and pray" approach, and Saint Mary’s is the kind of underrated home team casuals learn about the hard way. Numbers may shift, but the angles don’t. Let’s get to it.

College Basketball Best Bets For Saturday

These bets were available at the time of writing and are subject to change. 

• Kansas Jayhawks +10.5 (-110), down to +8, at Arizona Wildcats via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.1 units (u).
• Tennessee Volunteers -4.5 (-110), up to -6, vs. Alabama Crimson Tide via FanDuel, risking 1.1u.
• Saint Mary's Gaels moneyline (+120), down to a pick 'em, vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs via DraftKings, risking 1u.

#14 Kansas Jayhawks (+10.5) at #2 Arizona Wildcats, 4 p.m. ET 

Kansas gets more dunks, shoots more 3s, and settles for fewer long-mid-range jumpers (the most inefficient shot in basketball), according to Bart Torvik. The Jayhawks don't force many turnovers, but they rank 10th nationally in defensive rating, per Ken Pom. Meanwhile, the Wildcats don't space the floor and have one of the lowest 3-point shot volumes in the country. 

Kansas Jayhawks big Flory Bidunga blocks a shot by Arizona Wildcats guard Brayden Burries. (Photo credit: Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

KU has some weird losses and spectacular wins, including earlier this month when it beat Arizona at home without superstar freshman guard Darryn Peterson. Peterson could be the first pick in a loaded 2026 NBA Draft, and regardless, is the best player in this game. A week before beating the Wildcats, the Jayhawks upset Texas Tech on the road, so they can win in Tucson on Saturday. 

Lastly, Kansas has more momentum entering this game. They are 7-3 against the spread (ATS) over the last 10 games, whereas Arizona is 5-5 ATS. This suggests the Wildcats got a little overrated because of their success in non-conference play, and they are coming back down to earth in Big XII play. 

Prediction: Wildcats 77, Kansas 73

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#17 Alabama Crimson Tide at #22 Tennessee Volunteers (-4.5), 6 p.m. ET 

Alabama's bad defense is why it's just 1-6 ATS vs. ranked teams. The Crimson Tide ranks 66th nationally in defensive rating and 363rd out of 365 D1 schools in defensive turnover rate, according to Ken Pom. Tennessee has a five-game winning streak vs. 'Bama, including a 79-73 victory in Tuscaloosa last month. 

Alabama Crimson Tide guard Latrell Wrightsell Jr. drives to the basket vs. the Tennessee Volunteers at Coleman Coliseum. (Photo credit: David Leong-Imagn Images)

Furthermore, Alabama has a one-dimensional offense and leads the country in 3-point-attempt rate. The Volunteers are usually one of the best defensive teams in the country, and they just know how to stop the Crimson Tide. They average 92.9 points per game but haven't scored 76+ points in their last five games against Tennessee. 

Also, the Volunteers have a huge "strength-on-weakness" edge over 'Bama on the boards. UT leads the nation in offensive rebounding rate, and the Crimson Tide ranks 262nd in defensive rebounding rate, per Ken Pom. Finally, we could be getting a good number for the Volunteers, as they lost their last game vs. Missouri, and Alabama is on a seven-game winning streak. 

Prediction: Tennessee 82, Alabama 73

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#9 Gonzaga Bulldogs at Saint Mary's Gaels (+120), 10:30 p.m. ET 

This is a quintessential "fading a ranked team on the road in conference play" bet. Diehard college hoops fans know how good Saint Mary's is, but not the casuals. Ken Pom and Bart Torvik rank the Gaels 24th in adjusted net efficiency, which means more to me than their AP Poll ranking. 

Saint Mary's Gaels guard Joshua Dent getting a layup vs. the Gonzaga Bulldogs. (Photo credit: James Snook-Imagn Images)

SMC covered as +8.5 road underdogs vs. ‘Zaga earlier this season. Gonzaga is second in 2-point distribution nationally, and Saint Mary’s has two seven-foot bigs. The Gaels don't gamble on defense, ranking 269th in defensive turnover rate, per Ken Pom. However, they are third in defensive rebounding rate and keep opponents off the foul line. 

These teams are equal defensively, but SMC is a much better shooting team, and college kids obviously shoot better at home. The Gaels lead the country in free-throw make percentage and rank 14th in 3-point shooting percentage. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, are 171st in 3-point percentage and 272nd in free-throw percentage. 

Prediction: Saint Mary's 71, Gonzaga 68

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my 2025-26 college basketball best bets here.