'Three Best Bet Weave': Value Spots In A Final Four-Caliber Saturday

This Saturday’s college basketball slate is arguably the best of the season, rivaling the intensity of the Elite Eight or Final Four. This week's Three Best Bet Weave breaks down the board to find elite value, headlined by two massive matchups featuring top-four teams squaring off in potential national championship previews.

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Our analysis focuses on the three biggest games of the day, including a defensive clash between Arizona and Houston and a high-stakes battle between Duke and Michigan. From fading ranked favorites to identifying crucial possession advantages, these college basketball looks are designed to help you navigate a stacked Saturday slate.

College Hoops Best Bets For Saturday 

These bets were available at the time of writing and are subject to change. 

• UNDER 142.5 (-112), down to 139, in Arizona Wildcats at Houston Cougars via DraftKings, risking 1.12 units (u).
• Duke Blue Devils +2.5 (-106), down to a pick 'em, vs. Michigan Wolverines via FanDuel, risking 1.06u.
• BYU Cougars +3.5 (-112), down to +1.5, vs. Iowa State Cyclones via DraftKings, risking 1.12u.

UNDER 142.5 in #4 Arizona Wildcats at #2 Houston Cougars, 3 p.m. ET

According to Ken Pom, Houston ranks 354th in adjusted tempo out of 365 D1 schools. The Cougars should be able to control the pace because they have better turnover rates (TOV%) on both ends of the floor. Additionally, they are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation, which could limit Arizona's fastbreak opportunities, as it will have to focus on securing rebounds. 

Three Houston Cougars go up for a rebound vs. the Jackson State Tigers at Fertitta Center in Texas. (Photo Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images)

Other basketball-based reasons for this being a rock-fight include the Wildcats having one of the lowest 3-point-attempt rates in the country, Houston having one of the lowest offensive free-throw attempt rates in college basketball, and ranking 364th in average 2-point-attempt distance. Meaning, the Cougars settle for too many inefficient long-mid-range jumpers. 

Houston just went Over the total in a 70-67 loss at Iowa State Tuesday, snapping a five-game streak of Unders. The Cougars are 3-10 Over/Under (O/U) at home and 4-9 O/U in Big XII games. The Wildcats have gone Under in four of their past five games, and both Arizona-Houston meetings last season went Under. 

Prediction: Houston 71, Arizona 65 

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#1 Michigan Wolverines vs. #3 Duke Blue Devils (+2.5), 6:30 p.m. ET

I get to put my theory of "Big Ten basketball being the most overrated thing in college sports" to the test. Michigan is the betting favorite to win the national title and is just tearing through its conference. However, as I've said many times, the Big Ten is just a bunch of relatively unexciting teams beating up on each other and overrated by the media in the preseason. 

The Michigan Wolverines face the Duke Blue Devils in college basketball Saturday at Capital One Arena in Washington D.C. (Photo credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images)

Meanwhile, Duke's two losses are by a combined four points: 82-81 to Texas Tech on a neutral court and 71-68 to North Carolina on the road, thanks to a buzzer-beater. The Blue Devils have more impressive non-conference wins against #8 Kansas, #20 Arkansas, #12 Florida, and #15 Michigan State. 

Also, the "battle for possessions" is the most important thing in high-level basketball, and the Wolverines have a higher offensive TOV %, per Ken Pom. Finally, Duke has a better shot profile. Finally, the Blue Devils get more dunks, "close 2-pointers," and threes, and shoot fewer "farther 2-pointers," according to Bart Torvik. 

Prediction: Duke 78, Michigan 75

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#6 Iowa State Cyclones at #23 BYU Cougars (+3.5), 10:30 p.m. ET 

Simply put, I'm fading ISU after winning the biggest game of its season (Houston) and then going on the road in conference play. Sure, BYU is slumping (2-8 vs. the spread over the last 10 games) and lost its leader in 3-pointers made per game, SG Richie Saunders, to a season-ending knee injury Feb. 14. 

But Cougars freshman wing AJ Dybantsa is the best player on the floor and the nation's leading scorer at 24.8 points per game. This is one of the most loaded draft classes in recent memory, and Dybantsa tearing up a good Iowa State team would improve his case to be the first player drafted this summer. Regardless, BYU still has talent and athleticism to hold its own vs. ISU. 

More importantly, the Cyclones are 300th nationally in "Away/Home Court" efficiency, per HaslamMetrics.com. They are a jump-shooting team, and that doesn't travel well in college hoops. Plus, Iowa State ranks 345th in free-throw percentage at 66.5%. That said, I don't trust ISU to win by margin on the road. 

Prediction: BYU 81, Iowa State 76

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my 2025-26 college basketball best bets here.