'Three Best Bet Weave' For College Hoops Saturday

Don't hold me to this, but I'm going to try to make this Three-Bet Weave thing a weekly occurrence. While I'm not a big college basketball fan, the NBA is hot trash this season, both from a betting and viewing aspect, and there is only one more game left in the NFL season, so I need something to write about. Otherwise, what is OutKick paying me for, ya know?  

Anyway, I dug myself a hole in college hoops: 3-8 and -5.76 units (u). But I'm not discouraged because it's a small sample size, and we're still a few weeks away from March Madness. I'm going big-game hunting for my first Three-Bet Weave, with looks for the "Battle Of The Blues", a Big Ten clash between two top-10 teams, and a showdown of the top-two SEC programs. 

College Basketball Best Bets For Saturday 

• UNDER 151.5 (-108), down to 149.5, in Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels via DraftKings, risking 1.08u.
• Illinois Fighting Illini's moneyline (-104), up to -135, at Michigan State Spartans via FanDuel, risking 1.04u.
• Texas A&M Aggies +6.5 (-105), down to +5, vs. Florida Gators via BetMGM, risking 1.05u.

Under 151.5 in #4 Duke Blue Devils at #14 North Carolina Tar Heels, 6:30 p.m. ET 

Both teams are good at cleaning the glass on the defensive end and keeping their opponents off the foul line. North Carolina is 340th nationally in defensive turnover rate (TOV%) and 13th in offensive TOV%, per Ken Pom. This is the "basketball argument" for the Under: There should be fewer putbacks, free throws, and turnovers, which lead to easy points, in this game. 

Meanwhile, Duke usually overwhelms teams with its size, but the Tar Heels are the third-tallest team in the country, right behind the Blue Devils, who were second. UNC is fifth in defensive 2-point percentage, and Duke is a below-average 3-point shooting team, but it attempts a high volume of threes. Plus, both are bad free-throw shooting teams.

The Duke Blue Devils visit the North Carolina Tar Heels in college basketball Saturday. (Photo credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images)

Given North Carolina's size, the Blue Devils might shoot more 3-pointers instead of throwing the ball into the paint to their superstar freshman big, Cameron Boozer. And, obviously, college teams shoot better at home. Speaking of which, the Blue Devils have gone Under in four consecutive road games.

The Tar Heels counter with their own superstar freshman big, Caleb Wilson. Since Duke and UNC run their offense through the bigs and both force their opponents into long possessions, this could be a slow-paced game. Ultimately, this has all the makings of a physical game, and there has been slight line movement toward the Under. 

#5 Illinois Fighting Illini (-105) at #10 Michigan State Spartans, 8 p.m. ET 

This just feels like the sportsbooks are begging for Spartans' money. I know I'm not supposed to think like that, and betting splits don't mean anything. But, I'm expecting the market to back Michigan State Saturday. There will be "gambler's fallacy" in this game because the Spartans have lost two straight, and people will expect to snap their losing skid at home. 

I'm ignoring that and taking a road favorite in a conference game, which is usually a no-no in the sharp betting community, because I just think the Fighting Illini are better. They are the tallest team in the country, according to Ken Pom, and have the best guard in this game, Keaton Wagler, who's been ballin' lately. 

He only scored 13 points in his last game because Illinois beat Northwestern by 40 points. However, Wagler won Ken Pom's MVP for the three games prior, scoring 46, 22, and 28 points during that stretch. He is eighth nationally in offensive rating and shooting 44.4% from behind the arc and 80.7% at the foul line. 

Lastly, Illinois is a great 3-point shooting team, and Michigan State ranks 339th nationally in defensive 3-point attempt rate and leads the Big Ten in both defensive rebounding rate and defensive 2-point percentage. Meaning, the Spartans pack the paint and force teams to shoot threes, but that's not an ideal strategy for stopping the Illini. 

#17 Florida Gators at Texas A&M Aggies (+6.5), 8:30 p.m. ET 

Maybe I'm taking crazy pills, but why aren't the Aggies ranked? They are tied with Florida for the best record in the SEC at 7-2, and the SEC is the best conference in college basketball. 

Texas A&M's two losses in SEC play were by two points in double overtime against No. 25 Tennessee Volunteers and three points to the Alabama Crimson Tide, both on the road. Those aren't "bad losses". 

With that in mind, the Aggies are underrated, and this spread is off by a few points. In fact, the college hoops nerds, Ken Pom and Bart Torvik, project the Gators to win by four and two points, respectively. 

Texas A&M Aggies guard Rylan Griffen shoots a 3-pointer over the Oklahoma Sooners. (Photo Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images)

Furthermore, Texas A&M is at home and is a much better shooting team. Florida is 350th nationally in 3-point shooting percentage and 260th in free-throw percentage. The Aggies are 28th in 3-point shooting and 75th in free-throw shooting. 

Additionally, the "battle for possessions" is a crucial aspect of basketball, and Texas A&M has a better turnover rate on both ends of the floor. If they win the turnover battle Saturday and knock down their threes, the Aggies will cover this spread and maybe win outright.

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