'Three Best Bet Weave' For College Hoops Rivalry Saturday

Rivalry Saturday has arrived, and the college basketball landscape is bracing for a massive slate featuring 15 games involving Top 25 schools. With March Madness looming, these high-stakes matchups offer more than just bragging rights. They provide a crucial look at which teams are peaking and which are stumbling.

For this week's Three Best Bet Weave, I’m leaning on form, shot profiles, and the all-important "battle for possessions". If I could just stop betting my team, St. John's, I'd be crushing it this season. My college basketball betting record is 20-18 (0-5 in St. John's games) and +0.7 units (u). Let’s get to the card.

College Hoops Best Bets For Saturday

These bets were available at the time of writing and are subject to change. 

• #5 Florida Gators -5.5 (-110), up to -7, at the Kentucky Wildcats via FanDuel, risking 1.1u.
• Wisconsin Badgers +9.5 (-110), down to +8, at the #15 Purdue Boilermakers via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.1u.
• BYU Cougars -2.5 (-110), up to -3.5, vs. the #10 Texas Tech Red Raiders via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.1u.

#5 Florida Gators (-5.5) at Kentucky Wildcats, 4 p.m. ET 

For what it's worth, Kentucky is taking sharp action and has gone from a +7.5 underdog on DraftKings' opener, down to +5.5. Obviously, the sportsbooks will be reporting most of the money and bets are on Florida, so maybe my bet is square. However, this Gators team has a better net rating at this point in the season than last year's title-winning team. 

Florida Gators big Alex Condon posts up Kentucky Wildcats forward Andrija Jelavic at Exactech Arena in Gainesville. (Photo Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images)

Hey, this Todd Golden guy might be good. Golden has Florida playing its best ball entering March Madness, again. The Gators have a championship defense, probably the best frontcourt in the country and the nation's fourth-longest winning streak at 10 games. The Wildcats covered as +12.5 ‘dogs on the road on Valentine’s Day, but Florida is peaking since and UK is regressing. 

Prediction: Florida 87, Kentucky 76

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Wisconsin Badgers (+9.5) at #15 Purdue Boilermakers, 4 p.m. ET

Purdue is overrated and I'm fading the market, which has bet the Boilermakers up from a -7.5 opener. I know they waxed Wisconsin 89-73 on the road in their first meeting this season. But that's part of the market's overreaction and I prefer the Badgers' shot profile. They get more layups, shoot more 3s and take roughly half as many long-mid-range jumpers, the most inefficient shot in basketball.

Purdue PG Braden Smith drives past Wisconsin guard Nick Boyd at the Kohl Center in Madison. (Photo credit: © Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

Plus, Wisconsin has more size, just as much experience, and beat Purdue twice on the road last season. Finally, the Badgers rank 36th in "Momentum" and the Boilermakers are 271st, according to HaslamMetrics.com. Wisconsin is 6-2 against the spread (ATS) this month, while Purdue is 4-5 ATS, with a three-game non-cover streak. 

Prediction: Purdue 77, Wisconsin 74

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#10 Texas Tech Red Raiders at BYU Cougars (-2.5), 10:30 p.m. ET 

Texas Tech has ripped off a few wins since losing its leading scorer and rebounder, J.T. Toppin, to a season-ending injury. This includes upsetting #6 Iowa State on the road Feb. 28. But, eventually, Toppin's absence has to catch up to the Red Raiders, and the Cougars NEED to get right in their final home game of the season and snap this three-game losing skid. 

Toppin was Ken Pom's MVP in Texas Tech's 84-71 home win vs. BYU earlier this season. Toppin had 27 points and 13 rebounds, and Cougars freshman A.J. Dybantsa struggled, shooting 6-for-17 and only scoring 13 points. Dybantsa is the nation's leading scorer, averaging 24.8 points per game and BYU plays much better at home. 

BYU Cougars wing AJ Dybantsa shooting a jumper vs. the Texas Tech Red Raiders. (Photo credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images)

Also, the Cougars should win the almighty "battle for possessions". They have better rebounding and turnover rates on both sides of the floor, according to Ken Pom. Without Toppin, TTU is missing its best offensive rebounder. The "battle for possessions" is the most important thing in high-level basketball. Lastly, BYU has a better shot profile and gets more dunks and layups, per Bart Torvik. 

Prediction: BYU 82, Texas Tech 74

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my 2025-26 college basketball best bets here.