The World Series MVP Will Go To...

In year's past, I've hit the World Series MVP with some pretty great odds. I remember grabbing Jorge Soler when he won it with the Braves. I can remember betting on Kyle Schwarber (he didn't win, but arguably could've with the Cubs). Last year, I felt decent about my chances but it went to Jeremy Pena, and I didn't have a ticket on him. I will be upfront and honest about this: I have less confidence in my picks this year than ever before. I'll share where I think there is value and how I'll play it.

Favorites:

Adolis Garcia is the favorite to win the award at +500 and his teammate, Corey Seager is backing him up. I think the Diamondbacks are being a bit disrespected as their favorites are both +1000 for Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll. This obviously indicates the books expect the Rangers to win the World Series, but also shows me that they expect Garcia to continue to mash. He's batting .327 in the playoffs with seven homers and 20 RBIs. Most of that damage has come recently though. He has homered in four straight games. He does have an RBI in nine of the 12 Rangers postseason games though. Even if he has an average series, they might give him the award. Seager has hit .333 in the playoffs. His homer and RBI numbers aren't as astounding as Garcia, but has walked 12 times and struck out just seven. But, he does have the fact that he already has a World Series MVP on his mantle to add to his case.

Carroll and Marte are the cogs for the Diamondbacks offense. Carroll came alive a bit in the last three games against the Phillies, and was great in the first three playoff games, but was pretty average in the middle five. Marte has been a more consistent hitter, even if you won't find the kind of pop that Garcia or even Seager possess. Marte has hit .358 for the postseason, but he is striking out too much for my liking.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 28: Corey Seager #5 of the Texas Rangers in action against the New York Mets during a game at Citi Field on August 28, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

Long Shots:

Last time the Diamondbacks were in the World Series, there were two guys that made a huge difference. You probably remember the Luis Gonzalez hit that sealed the deal, but it was because of Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson that they were even in the series against the Yankees. Schilling and Johnson were named the MVPs. Could history repeat itself? Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are not Schilling and Johnson, but they are good pitchers. Gallen and Kelly need to win games in order for the Diamondbacks to have a chance. They got one victory in a game started by them in the NLCS. That's not going to cut it for the World Series. I expect Kelly to be the better pitcher (and will probably be fading Gallen), and at odds of +4000 I see a ton of value. Say he makes two starts and wins them both but no one guy on offense is great. Kelly wins. If he pitches two great starts and relieves in a Game 7 or something, Kelly wins. There are paths and the value is there.

I think the same argument can be made for Nathan Eovaldi who is having a great postseason at +1600 and Max Scherzer at +7000. Scherzer has not been sharp, but he will be expected to pitch twice at least if needed. I also think he will probably be more effective now that he has a few games under his belt. 70:1 though is absurdly high for a guy like Scherzer.

This is a very hard award to predict. It could be one great game that shifts the momentum. It could be one hit that wins the World Series. Baseball is more unpredictable than almost any of the other three big sports. Over the past 10 years, we've had two pitchers, two shortstops, two outfielders, a designated hitter, a first baseman, a second baseman, and a catcher. The NFL, in comparison, has had six quarterbacks, two wide receivers, and two linebackers.

I'm going to take a unit and divide it up. I won't play Seager or Garcia. I think they pitch around Garcia. Instead, I'll put a third of a unit each on Kelly, Eovaldi, and Scherzer. If I had to pick a position player, I'd take Carroll from the Diamondbacks, and think there is good value on him at 10:1 so I'll probably sprinkle on him. From the Rangers side, Josh Jung at +2000 stands out to me as well. Heck, it is the last series of the season, I'll take a unit (it has been a nice postseason overall) and split it between Carrol and Jung as well.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024