The Fight Analyst: UFC Vegas 29 Betting Guide
On the heels of one of the best events of 2021, we have a solid fight card on tap. This weekend, we have a banger of a main event with two dangerous strikers in the Featherweight division, #4 "The Korean Zombie" Chan Sung Jung and #8 Dan Ige. With that said, let's dig deep into the odds.
Dhiego Lima (-176) vs Matt Brown (+142)
The first on the main card is a fight between two long time veterans of this sport, Dhiego Lima and Matt Brown. This is going to be a closely contested scrap between these two fighters.
Matt Brown comes into this fight off of back-to-back, hard fought losses. He may seem like he is at the end of his career at this point in time, but he still has some fight left in to get one more win before calling it quits.. At any given moment, Brown can change the landscape of a fight with just a single strike. He's going to need to be the vintage savage Matt Brown that the fans know and love if he wants to get his hand raised on Saturday night.
Dhiego Lima is coming off of a pretty bad beatdown by Belal Muhammad but had won three straight prior to that fight. Lima will have to have a more technical approach to this fight and will need to utilize that in order to stay out of a brawl with Brown. If he gets suckered into fighting Brown's fight, it could be a quick night.
Dhiego Lima comes into this fight looking fresher, and he is eight years younger than Brown. That youth and quickness could be the difference maker. Lima should use his grappling to his advantage in this matchup and just grind out a tough fight decision
The pick: Dhiego Lima (-176)
Bruno Silva (-142) vs Wellington Turman (+116)
Two heavy hitters are set to square off in this Middleweight division fight: Bruna Silva and Wellington Turman. Silva is making his UFC debut after a two year layoff at the hands of USADA, while Turman is looking to get back into the win column.
Wellington Turman is coming into this fight with a 1-2 UFC record and in dire need of a win here. Knowing that his back against the wall, Turman might come in with the smart approach to take Silva down to the mat. He has a clear path to get back on the winning track, but he has to go in there and execute it against the dangerous Bruno Silva.
The former M-1 Challenge Middleweight champion is coming into his UFC debut on the heels of a 2 year suspension by USADA for steroid use. The now 32-year-old Brazilian is a very dangerous striker with 16 of 19 wins by way of knockout. He has shown grappling deficiencies in the past, as 6 of his 7 losses are by submission. Silva will need to keep this fight on the feet if he wants a successful UFC debut.
It is going to be very interesting to see how well Silva will be off the steroids and witj the long layoff. Turman has a pretty sizable grappling advantage in this fight. If he is able to avoid the power punches and takes Silva to the mat, he is a very live underdog.
The pick: Wellington Turman (+116)
Seungwoo Choi (-150) vs Juilian Erosa (+122)
Fight fans are in for a treat with this matchup in the Featherweight division between Seungwoo Choi and Julian Erosa. Both fighters are looking to extend their win streaks to three. That should bring out the best in both fighters and, in return, will make for a barn burner of a fight.
Seungwoo Choi is coming off of the best performance of his career in his win against Youssef Zalal. Choi looked exceptional striking at distance and showed off his improved grappling in that fight. Choi has a high level of striking that will be on full display here in this matchup with Erosa.
Julian Erosa has been defying the odds, literally. He has cashed in as an underdog in each of his last two fights, and he will be looking to make it number three. His high pace and pressure will need to hold for the whole duration of the fight if he wants to keep his win streak alive.
This is a fantastic matchup between two action-packed fighters. This betting line is close for a reason, and it really is going to come down to who wants it more. With that said, it's also hard to believe that Erosa's chin has gotten any better with age, as he's been knocked out 5 times in his career. Choi should get the better of the exchanges on the feet and defend the desperate takedowns and cruise to unanimous decision.
The pick: Seungwoo Choi (-150)
Marlon Vera (-215) vs Davey Grant (+172)
We have a great scrap in the bantamweight division with a rematch between #15 Marlon Vera and Davey Grant. Vera is looking to get back into the win column while Grant is in his best form winning three straight.
Marlon Vera has had some tough luck losses as of late against Song Yadong and Jose Aldo. Vera is looking to get this fight back against Grant. When they first fought, it was only his 3rd fight with the promotion. He has progressed immensely since that fight, recording a 9-4 record with eight wins via finish.
Davey Grant has a nice little win streak coming into the rematch with Marlon Vera and looks in his best form. Grant coming off of back-to-back knockout wins might be a detriment coming into this fight with Vera. If Grant comes into this fight searching for the knockout, it could be very dangerous against the very opportunistic Marlon Vera.
Ever since their first encounter way back in 2016, Vera has been on tear, fighting 13 times. Grant, on the other hand, hasn't been nearly as active, with only 5 fights. The level of competition has helped Vera progress immensely throughout his time in the promotion, which in return will help avenge his loss against Grant. Vera is going to get the better of the exchanges on the feet, and don't be surprised if Vera gets his eighth submission victory in his career come Saturday night.
The pick: Marlon Vera (-215)
Sergey Spivak (-230) vs Aleksei Oleinik (+184)
A clash between old school and new school come together in the Heavyweight division with a matchup between Sergey Spivak and Aleksei Oleinik. The surging Spivak is looking to keep his win streak going, while Oleinik is looking to get back on track after losing two in a row.
Sergey Spivak has really been putting it together with wins over Carlos Felipe and Jared Vanderaa in back-to-back contests. Spivak is a grappler by trade, so he's going to want to use that to keep this fight on the feet and at distance. As long as this fight stays on the feet, it's his to lose.
Aleksei Oleinik is coming off of back-to-back losses for the 3rd time in his career. He is at the point in his career that he either gets a finish in the first round or he gets finished in the first round. Oleinik, always a dangerous submission threat, needs to get a submission or his chances of coming out victorious are very slim.
The youth, quickness and strength of Spivak will surely be the difference maker in this fight. He is not known for his power, but if he can up the aggression and drown Oleinik in volume, he can certainly get the finish. Expect a very dangerous first few minutes for Spivak, but he ultimately puts Oleinik away midway through the first round.
The pick: Sergey Spivak (-230)
Chan Sung Jung (-112) vs Dan Ige (-108)
The main event for Saturday is an amazing 5-round scrap between #4 "The Korean Zombie," Chan Sung Jung, and #8 Dan Ige. Korean Zombie is looking to get back on track, while Dan Ige is looking to build on his last knockout win. This is a war that you're not going to want to miss!
Korean Zombie is coming off of arguably one of his worst performances against now title-challenger Brian Ortega. He just couldn't solve the problem with the new and improved Ortega. With that performance, people seem quick to forget how good he was. Korean Zombie has a matchup against Ige that can get him back on track.
Dan Ige is coming off of one of the top knockouts of 2021 when he knocked out Gavin Tucker in just 22 seconds. Ige has always been as tough as they come and can hang in there with some of the best strikers in the Featherweight division. Ige will need to mix it up in there and not make this a primarily striking affair. If he is able to land the takedowns and make Chan work, he will have a chance of getting the biggest win of his career.
This is going to be a very closely contested fight that will be fought primarily on the feet. With that said, it is hard not to pick Korean Zombie, as he excels in this type of fight. Ige doesn't have the deceptive striking that Ortega has, which will make it easier for him to land his counters. Korean Zombie will be the one landing the heavier shots more frequently and will be the one getting his hand raised on Saturday night.
The Pick: Chan Sung Jung (-108)
Value Bets
Wellington Turman vs Bruno Silva under 2.5 rounds (-132)
Expect these two to bring a ton of excitement and energy into this fight. These two dynamic finishers have a combined 27 wins inside the distance across 45 fights, which is good for 60%. A finish on either side under the 2.5 round mark seems like a very likely scenario in this one.
Davey Grant vs Marlon Vera under 2.5 rounds (+100)
This is another fight between two finishers who are also quite familiar with one another. These fighters have a combined 28 finishes across 41 fights which is good for 68%. A finish here is very likely to happen in this one.
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