Texas Tech Will Demolish Cincinnati Tonight

Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech, 7:00 ET

I've mentioned this before, but there are some games that are posted where you can just look and tell one team or another is undervalued. I will be honest, I didn't feel like that about any of the past few teams I've discussed in these articles. We've gotten wins in three of the past four articles, and while I felt confident in those plays, I don't think I had as much confidence as I do in this pick. Tonight, the book is gifting us a line in the game between Cincinnati and Texas Tech.

Cincinnati is 15-12 for the season and just 7-7 in the Big 12. That isn't to say the team is terrible, because they've shown moments of success, including their current stretch. They've won four games in a row, and that includes going into Kansas and beating the Jayhawks rather convincingly. It wasn't just a bad Kansas game; the Bearcats took them down by 16 points, coasting to a win. This was actually the second time that Cincinnati has beaten a ranked team this season, beating Iowa State earlier in the season as well. On the road, outside of that game against Kansas, they have struggled. They lost to Houston, Arizona, and UCF, all on the road. They also lost to Louisville on a neutral court. When they lose, they don't tend to be huge blowouts, as most games seem to be kept rather close. They have only four losses by ten points or more this year. 

Feb 21, 2026; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats center Moustapha Thiam (52) dribbles the ball as Kansas Jayhawks guard Jayden Dawson (1) defends during the second half of the game at Allen Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Texas Tech is one of the better teams in the nation, and I really don't think they are getting enough credit. They are 20-7 for the season and are currently ranked as the 16th best team in the nation, which doesn't feel like it is quite good enough in my book. Sure, they have suffered some tough losses, but they have also had some incredibly impressive wins. They are the only team in the country that can claim wins over Duke, Houston, and Arizona. All of those teams have been ranked in the top five of the nation for almost the entire season. They have lost against good and bad teams, though, so there is an issue with focus at times. They lost to Illinois on the road, then to Purdue on a neutral court. They also have fallen to Arkansas, Houston, UCF, Kansas, and Arizona State. Losing to Arizona State was a big letdown spot, and that is exactly what happened. They came out and destroyed Kansas State in their last game to get back on track. They do have a big game against Iowa State coming up next, so this could be a spot where they overlook their opponent, but I don't see it happening. 

I just don't see a path for Cincinnati winning this game. In order for Texas Tech to blow this game, they will have to do nothing but think about their game with Iowa State. I just don't see that happening. Cincinnati does like to play a bit slower, but I'm really not sure how they expect to match up with Texas Tech. This is another game for the Red Raiders to showcase just how good they are. Give me Texas Tech -6.5.

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