Texas And Mississippi State Can Light Up Scoreboards

Texas vs. Mississippi State, 7:00 ET

I went 1-1 again last night, and while that may sound like a complaint, it really is not. I don't mind splitting, although you do get a bit of the vig hurting you when it happens too often. For newer folks, if you go 1-1 on 20 bets in a row, you're down 1u if you're betting -110 odds. That's not good for a long term strategy, but we've done well for the most part this season. My loss last night was with Duke. I thought Wake Forest would be competitive and cover the big 20-point spread. Not only did Duke win by 20, they actually won by 30. Let's hope tonight's play between Texas and Mississippi State goes better for us.

Texas is not having a very good season. Honestly, I feel like they haven't had a good season since Kevin Durant donned their uniform, but I'm sure I'm wrong about that. For the year the team is just 16-13, and they play in the brutally difficult SEC, so there are certainly reasons that they are struggling. For example in SEC play, the team is just 5-11 and currently in 13th place. Their losses are too many to list here, so let's focus on who they have beaten in the SEC. They went on the road and took down Oklahoma, they've beaten Missouri and Texas A&M at home, they beat LSU on the road, and they've hosted and beaten Kentucky. Their win against Kentucky is their most recent victory and it has split two separate three-game losing streaks. It seems a bit strange to me who they are winning against and who they lose against. There isn't really one single factor or indicator that the Longhorns are winning certain ones while losing others. Texas has been both blown out and kept games close as well. The problem with betting on or against a team like this typically is that it is difficult to figure out when they will be good, and when they will struggle.

Feb 8, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Texas Longhorns forward Devon Pryor (22) dunks the ball over Vanderbilt Commodores guard Jason Edwards (1) during the second half at Memorial Gymnasium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Mississippi State is one of the better teams not only in the SEC, but in the nation. I'm not personally expecting them to have a deep run, and could even see them potentially upset in the first round depending on their draw, but this is a good team. They are 20-9 and sit at 8th place in the SEC. That is part of the reason they are a bit difficult to judge on how they will do in mid-March because they could draw an SEC opponent and get rocked, or they could have some random Big 12 team and crush them. For example, against non-SEC opponents, the team is 12-1. Against SEC opponents, just 8-8. Their one loss was to Butler, which is not a very good team this year, but it did come on a neutral court. I'd love to tell you that Mississippi State has been great at home and struggled on the road, but that's not the case either. In the SEC home games, they below out South Carolina, lost to Kentucky, won in overtime over Ole Miss, and lost to Alabama, Missouri, and Florida, with only the Alabama game being a close one. Their two most recent home games have been wins though. They had an impressive win over Texas A&M and a good one over LSU. 

This game shouldn't be all that difficult for Mississippi State, but you really never know when Texas will have a good game. The line is moving in favor of the Bulldogs, and I do think they should cover. However, I like the over in this game better. Both teams are averaging over 75 points per game, and neither has a truly elite defense. This will likely once again come down to how close the Longhorns can make it, but I'll back the over in this game.

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